. clear all
. cap noi which tabout
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\t\tabout.ado
*! 2.0.8 Ian Watson 15mar2019
*! tabout version 3 (beta) available at: http://tabout.net.au
. if _rc==111 {
. cap noi ssc install tabout
. }
. cap noi which pathutil
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\p\pathutil.ado
*! version 2.2.0 19nov2020 daniel klein
. if _rc==111 {
. cap noi net install pathutil, from("http://fmwww.bc.edu/repec/bocode/p/")
. }
. cap noi which pathutil
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\p\pathutil.ado
*! version 2.2.0 19nov2020 daniel klein
. if _rc==111 {
. ssc install dirtools
. }
. cap noi which project
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\p\project.ado
*! version 1.3.1 22dec2013 picard@netbox.com
. if _rc==111 {
. ssc install project
. }
. cap noi which stipw
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\s\stipw.ado
*! Version 1.0.0 17Jan2022
. if _rc==111 {
. ssc install stipw
. }
. cap noi which stpm2
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\s\stpm2.ado
*! version 1.7.5 May2021
. if _rc==111 {
. ssc install stpm2
. }
. cap noi which rcsgen
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\r\rcsgen.ado
*! version 1.5.9 13FEB2022
. if _rc==111 {
. ssc install rcsgen
. }
. cap noi which matselrc
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\m\matselrc.ado
*! NJC 1.1.0 20 Apr 2000 (STB-56: dm79)
. if _rc==111 {
. cap noi net install dm79, from(http://www.stata.com/stb/stb56)
. }
. cap noi which pbalchk
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\ado\plus\p\pbalchk.ado
*! Version: 3.0.0
*! Author: Mark Lunt
*! Date: October 2, 2017 @ 12:47:35
. if _rc==111 {
. cap noi net install pbalchk.pkg
. }
Date created: 17:17:38 19 Apr 2023.
Get the folder
C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\Mi unidad\Alvacast\SISTRAT 2022 (github)
Fecha: 19 Apr 2023, considerando un SO Windows para el usuario: CISS Fondecyt
Path data= ;
Tiempo: 19 Apr 2023, considerando un SO Windows
The file is located and named as: C:\Users\CISS Fondecyt\Mi unidad\Alvacast\SISTRAT 2022 (github)ser_2023_0.dta
=============================================================================
=============================================================================
We open the files
. use "ser_2023_0.dta", clear
=============================================================================
=============================================================================
We generated a list of parametric and intercept-only survival models with different distributions (Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, Log-logistic, Log-normal & Generalized gamma. Aditionally, we defined a series of Royston-Parmar models with a function of restricted cubic splines, in which the knots (#df -1) are defined in each percentile of the distribution. We saved the estimates in the file called `parmodels_m_illness_death_23’.
. forvalues i = 1/3 {
2. // Exponential
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
3. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Exp (intercept-only)}"
4. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
5. set seed 2125
6. qui cap noi merlin (_time if _trans == `i', family(exponential, fail(_status)))
7. estimates store m`i'_exp
8. // Weibull
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
9. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Wei (intercept-only)}"
10. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
11. set seed 2125
12. qui cap noi merlin (_time if _trans == `i', family(weibull, fail(_status)))
13. estimates store m`i'_weib
14. // Gompertz
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
15. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Gomp (intercept-only)}"
16. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
17. set seed 2125
18. qui cap noi merlin (_time if _trans == `i', family(gompertz, fail(_status)))
19. estimates store m`i'_gom
20. // Log logistic
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
21. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Logl (intercept-only)}"
22. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
23. set seed 2125
24. qui cap noi merlin (_time if _trans == `i', family(loglogistic, fail(_status)))
25. estimates store m`i'_logl
26. // Log normal
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
27. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Logn (intercept-only)}"
28. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
29. set seed 2125
30. qui cap noi merlin (_time if _trans == `i', family(lognormal, fail(_status)))
31. estimates store m`i'_logn
32. // Generalised gamma
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
33. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Ggam (intercept-only)}"
34. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
35. set seed 2125
36. qui cap noi merlin (_time if _trans == `i', family(ggamma, fail(_status)))
37. estimates store m`i'_ggam
38. // Royston Parmar models
. forvalues j=1/5 {
39. set seed 2125
40. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
41. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family RP`j' (intercept-only)}"
42. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
43. qui cap noi merlin (_time if _trans == `i', family(rp, df(`j') fail(_status)))
44. estimates store m`i'_rp`j'
45. }
46. }
***********
Transition 1: family Exp (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -55261.303
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -54716.512
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -54702.717
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -54702.711
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -54702.711
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -54702.711
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -2.320347 .0077909 -297.83 0.000 -2.335617 -2.305077
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Wei (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -54644.673
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -53476.592
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -53404.087
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -53403.928
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -53403.928
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -53403.928
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.970128 .0097696 -201.66 0.000 -1.989276 -1.95098
log(gamma) | -.3196104 .0067603 -47.28 0.000 -.3328605 -.3063604
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Gomp (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -215357.72
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -55106.901
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -50225.685
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48913.017
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48885.557
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48885.483
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -48885.483
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48885.483
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.320902 .010986 -120.24 0.000 -1.342435 -1.29937
gamma | -.6615875 .0079282 -83.45 0.000 -.6771264 -.6460485
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Logl (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -80176.502 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -54981.611
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -52477.418
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -52475.546
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -52475.546
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -52475.546
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | 2.18261 .014022 155.66 0.000 2.155127 2.210092
dap:1 | .1616067 .0066411 24.33 0.000 .1485904 .174623
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Logn (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -104584.13 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -54983.371
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -51325.065
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -51313.067
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -51313.058
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -51313.058
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -51313.058
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | 2.243483 .0148054 151.53 0.000 2.214465 2.272501
dap:1 | .6883279 .0063076 109.13 0.000 .6759653 .7006906
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Ggam (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -94859.929 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -52182.962
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -50731.84
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49966.001
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49932.222
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -49932.142
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -49932.142
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49932.142
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | 1.310507 .0200993 65.20 0.000 1.271113 1.349901
log(sigma) | .8842954 .0060897 145.21 0.000 .8723598 .8962311
kappa | -1.432847 .0238447 -60.09 0.000 -1.479582 -1.386112
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family RP1 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -101872.98
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -53767.241
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -53404.06
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -53403.928
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -53403.928
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -53403.928
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.504204 .0082603 -182.10 0.000 -1.520394 -1.488014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP2 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -101872.98
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -46229.479
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45127.559
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -44862.487
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44797.558
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44732.009
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44572.642
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44510.332
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44510.223
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -44510.223
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -44510.223
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.545168 .0082798 -186.62 0.000 -1.561396 -1.52894
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP3 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -101872.98
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -50394.629
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -47234.15
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -46742.058
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -46459.901
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45553.042
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44075.515
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44069.114
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44069.113
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -44069.113
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.528411 .0082749 -184.70 0.000 -1.54463 -1.512193
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP4 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -101872.98
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -44657.873
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -44433.425
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -44104.112
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -43627.594
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -43625.829
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -43625.828
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43625.828
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.539989 .0083142 -185.22 0.000 -1.556285 -1.523694
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP5 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -101872.98
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -44763.547
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -44478.273
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -44271.048
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44178.207
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -43577.463
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -43576.809
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43576.788
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43576.788
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43576.788
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.541313 .008319 -185.28 0.000 -1.557618 -1.525008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family Exp (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49776.729
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49583.571
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49581.903
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49581.902
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49581.902
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -2.459766 .0083534 -294.46 0.000 -2.476138 -2.443393
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Wei (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49773.52
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49575.425
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49573.175
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49573.175
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49573.175
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -2.499036 .0126655 -197.31 0.000 -2.52386 -2.474212
log(gamma) | .0284193 .0067567 4.21 0.000 .0151764 .0416622
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Gomp (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -214004.6
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -50039.667
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49423.86
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49410.872
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49410.862
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -49410.862
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49410.862
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -2.277597 .0126332 -180.29 0.000 -2.302358 -2.252837
gamma | -.0823451 .0045843 -17.96 0.000 -.0913302 -.07336
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Logl (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -83752.762 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -50762.542
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49188.701
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49186.55
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49186.55
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49186.55
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | 2.094407 .0108015 193.90 0.000 2.073236 2.115577
dap:1 | -.1592547 .0067494 -23.60 0.000 -.1724834 -.146026
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Logn (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -106259.02 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -52439.734
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48710.146
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48699.316
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48699.302
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48699.302
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48699.302
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | 2.172108 .0121746 178.41 0.000 2.148247 2.19597
dap:1 | .4323761 .0062647 69.02 0.000 .4200974 .4446547
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Ggam (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -98153.176 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -50400.053
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49296.449
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48578.225
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48525.841
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48524.397
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -48524.395
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48524.395
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | 1.855067 .0238962 77.63 0.000 1.808232 1.901903
log(sigma) | .6114613 .0091237 67.02 0.000 .5935792 .6293435
kappa | -.732226 .0402339 -18.20 0.000 -.8110829 -.6533691
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family RP1 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -100119.95
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -50155.689
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49573.296
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49573.175
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49573.175
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49573.175
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.83916 .0097673 -188.30 0.000 -1.858303 -1.820016
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP2 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -100119.95
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49133.327
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48485.024
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48484.522
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48484.522
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48484.522
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.877291 .0099294 -189.06 0.000 -1.896752 -1.85783
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP3 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -100119.95
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49132.171
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48482.93
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48482.373
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48482.373
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48482.373
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.877181 .0099279 -189.08 0.000 -1.896639 -1.857723
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP4 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -100119.95
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49136.309
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48480.291
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48479.359
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48479.359
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48479.359
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.876862 .0099252 -189.10 0.000 -1.896315 -1.857409
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP5 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -100119.95
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49139.874
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48480.388
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48479.056
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48479.055
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48479.055
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -1.876866 .0099254 -189.10 0.000 -1.89632 -1.857413
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family Exp (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49646.765
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -11261.783
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -11238.747
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -11238.671
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -11238.671
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 16,475
Log likelihood = -11238.671
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -2.827885 .0184553 -153.23 0.000 -2.864057 -2.791713
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Wei (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
***********
Transition 3: family Gomp (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -63309.729
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -11564.137
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -11112.527
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -11102.629
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -11102.598
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -11102.598
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 16,475
Log likelihood = -11102.598
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | -2.452601 .0280998 -87.28 0.000 -2.507676 -2.397527
gamma | -.1832821 .0118067 -15.52 0.000 -.2064228 -.1601414
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Logl (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -22792.761 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -12041.165
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -11120.593
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -11108.562
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -11108.501
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -11108.501
Fixed effects regression model Number of obs = 16,475
Log likelihood = -11108.501
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_time: |
_cons | 2.934935 .0377377 77.77 0.000 2.86097 3.008899
dap:1 | .1624964 .0160611 10.12 0.000 .1310172 .1939756
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Logn (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
***********
Transition 3: family Ggam (intercept-only)
***********
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
***********
Transition 3: family RP1 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
***********
Transition 3: family RP2 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
***********
Transition 3: family RP3 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
***********
Transition 3: family RP4 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
***********
Transition 3: family RP5 (intercept-only)
***********
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
initial values not feasible
-> Starting values failed - trying zero vector
initial values not feasible
.
. estwrite _all using "${pathdata2}parmodels_m_illness_death_23.sters", replace
(saving m1_exp)
(saving m1_weib)
(saving m1_gom)
(saving m1_logl)
(saving m1_logn)
(saving m1_ggam)
(saving m1_rp1)
(saving m1_rp2)
(saving m1_rp3)
(saving m1_rp4)
(saving m1_rp5)
(saving m2_exp)
(saving m2_weib)
(saving m2_gom)
(saving m2_logl)
(saving m2_logn)
(saving m2_ggam)
(saving m2_rp1)
(saving m2_rp2)
(saving m2_rp3)
(saving m2_rp4)
(saving m2_rp5)
(saving m3_exp)
(saving m3_weib)
(saving m3_gom)
(saving m3_logl)
(saving m3_logn)
(saving m3_ggam)
(saving m3_rp1)
(saving m3_rp2)
(saving m3_rp3)
(saving m3_rp4)
(saving m3_rp5)
(file parmodels_m_illness_death_23.sters saved)
We checked the AICs and BICs.
. *file:///G:/Mi%20unidad/Alvacast/SISTRAT%202019%20(github)/_supp_mstates/stata/1806.01615.pdf
. *rcs - restricted cubic splines on log hazard scale
. *rp - Royston-Parmar model (restricted cubic spline on log cumulative hazard scale)
. forvalues i = 1/3 {
2. qui count if _trans == `i' & _d == 1
3. // we count the amount of cases with the event in the strata
. //we call the estimates stored, and the results...
. estimates stat m`i'_*, n(`r(N)')
4. //we store in a matrix de survival
. matrix stats_`i'_intonly= r(S)
5. }
Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model | N ll(null) ll(model) df AIC BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
m1_exp | 16,475 . -54702.71 1 109407.4 109415.1
m1_weib | 16,475 . -53403.93 2 106811.9 106827.3
m1_gom | 16,475 . -48885.48 2 97774.97 97790.39
m1_logl | 16,475 . -52475.55 2 104955.1 104970.5
m1_logn | 16,475 . -51313.06 2 102630.1 102645.5
m1_ggam | 16,475 . -49932.14 3 99870.28 99893.41
m1_rp1 | 16,475 . -53403.93 2 106811.9 106827.3
m1_rp2 | 16,475 . -44510.22 3 89026.45 89049.57
m1_rp3 | 16,475 . -44069.11 4 88146.23 88177.06
m1_rp4 | 16,475 . -43625.83 5 87261.66 87300.2
m1_rp5 | 16,475 . -43576.79 6 87165.58 87211.83
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model | N ll(null) ll(model) df AIC BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
m2_exp | 14,331 . -49581.9 1 99165.8 99173.38
m2_weib | 14,331 . -49573.17 2 99150.35 99165.49
m2_gom | 14,331 . -49410.86 2 98825.72 98840.86
m2_logl | 14,331 . -49186.55 2 98377.1 98392.24
m2_logn | 14,331 . -48699.3 2 97402.6 97417.74
m2_ggam | 14,331 . -48524.4 3 97054.79 97077.5
m2_rp1 | 14,331 . -49573.17 2 99150.35 99165.49
m2_rp2 | 14,331 . -48484.52 3 96975.04 96997.76
m2_rp3 | 14,331 . -48482.37 4 96972.75 97003.03
m2_rp4 | 14,331 . -48479.36 5 96968.72 97006.57
m2_rp5 | 14,331 . -48479.05 6 96970.11 97015.53
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model | N ll(null) ll(model) df AIC BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
m3_exp | 2,936 . -11238.67 1 22479.34 22485.33
m3_weib | 2,936 . -11238.67 1 22479.34 22485.33
m3_gom | 2,936 . -11102.6 2 22209.2 22221.17
m3_logl | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
m3_logn | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
m3_ggam | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
m3_rp1 | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
m3_rp2 | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
m3_rp3 | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
m3_rp4 | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
m3_rp5 | 2,936 . -11108.5 2 22221 22232.97
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
.
. estimates clear
.
. ** to order AICs
. *https://www.statalist.org/forums/forum/general-stata-discussion/general/1665263-sorting-matrix-including-rownames
. cap qui noi mata: mata drop st_sort_matrix()
st_sort_matrix() not found
. mata :
------------------------------------------------- mata (type end to exit) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
:
: void st_sort_matrix(
> //argumento de la matriz
> string scalar matname,
> //argumento de las columnas
> real rowvector columns
> )
> {
> string matrix rownames
> real colvector sort_order
> // defino una base
> //Y = st_matrix(matname)
> //[.,(1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5)]
> //ordeno las columnas
> rownames = st_matrixrowstripe(matname) //[.,(1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5)]
> sort_order = order(st_matrix(matname), (columns))
> st_replacematrix(matname, st_matrix(matname)[sort_order,.])
> st_matrixrowstripe(matname, rownames[sort_order,.])
> }
:
: end
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. //mata: mata drop st_sort_matrix()
.
. mata : st_sort_matrix("stats_1_intonly", 5)
. mata : st_sort_matrix("stats_2_intonly", 5)
. mata : st_sort_matrix("stats_3_intonly", 5)
.
. matrix comb_intonly = (stats_1_intonly \ stats_2_intonly \ stats_3_intonly)
. esttab matrix(comb_intonly) using "${pathdata2}testreg_aic_ser_23.csv", replace
(output written to testreg_aic_ser_23.csv)
. esttab matrix(comb_intonly) using "${pathdata2}testreg_aic_ser_23.html", replace
(output written to testreg_aic_ser_23.html)
| comb_intonly | ||||||
| N | ll0 | ll | df | AIC | BIC | |
| m1_rp5 | 16475 | . | -43576.79 | 6 | 87165.58 | 87211.83 |
| m1_rp4 | 16475 | . | -43625.83 | 5 | 87261.66 | 87300.2 |
| m1_rp3 | 16475 | . | -44069.11 | 4 | 88146.23 | 88177.06 |
| m1_rp2 | 16475 | . | -44510.22 | 3 | 89026.45 | 89049.57 |
| m1_gom | 16475 | . | -48885.48 | 2 | 97774.97 | 97790.39 |
| m1_ggam | 16475 | . | -49932.14 | 3 | 99870.28 | 99893.41 |
| m1_logn | 16475 | . | -51313.06 | 2 | 102630.1 | 102645.5 |
| m1_logl | 16475 | . | -52475.55 | 2 | 104955.1 | 104970.5 |
| m1_weib | 16475 | . | -53403.93 | 2 | 106811.9 | 106827.3 |
| m1_rp1 | 16475 | . | -53403.93 | 2 | 106811.9 | 106827.3 |
| m1_exp | 16475 | . | -54702.71 | 1 | 109407.4 | 109415.1 |
| m2_rp4 | 14331 | . | -48479.36 | 5 | 96968.72 | 97006.57 |
| m2_rp5 | 14331 | . | -48479.05 | 6 | 96970.11 | 97015.53 |
| m2_rp3 | 14331 | . | -48482.37 | 4 | 96972.75 | 97003.03 |
| m2_rp2 | 14331 | . | -48484.52 | 3 | 96975.04 | 96997.76 |
| m2_ggam | 14331 | . | -48524.4 | 3 | 97054.79 | 97077.5 |
| m2_logn | 14331 | . | -48699.3 | 2 | 97402.6 | 97417.74 |
| m2_logl | 14331 | . | -49186.55 | 2 | 98377.1 | 98392.24 |
| m2_gom | 14331 | . | -49410.86 | 2 | 98825.72 | 98840.86 |
| m2_rp1 | 14331 | . | -49573.17 | 2 | 99150.35 | 99165.49 |
| m2_weib | 14331 | . | -49573.17 | 2 | 99150.35 | 99165.49 |
| m2_exp | 14331 | . | -49581.9 | 1 | 99165.8 | 99173.38 |
| m3_gom | 2936 | . | -11102.6 | 2 | 22209.2 | 22221.17 |
| m3_rp4 | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_ggam | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_rp5 | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_rp3 | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_logl | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_rp2 | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_logn | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_rp1 | 2936 | . | -11108.5 | 2 | 22221 | 22232.97 |
| m3_weib | 2936 | . | -11238.67 | 1 | 22479.34 | 22485.33 |
| m3_exp | 2936 | . | -11238.67 | 1 | 22479.34 | 22485.33 |
In case of the more flexible parametric models (non-standard), we selected the models that showed the best trade-off between lower complexity and better fit, and this is why we also considered the BIC. If a model with less parameters had greater or equal AIC (or differences lower than 2) but also had better BIC (<=2), we favoured the model with less parameters.
Posteriorly, we compared models by adding polysubstance use. Equally, we added the time of arrival as a covariate to each transition (excluding the first). We saved the estimates in `parmodels_m_illness_death_23_2’.
. global covs_2 "i.poly i.sus_prin_mod i.fr_sus_prin edad_al_ing_1 edad_ini_cons i.sex_enc i.esc_rec i.ten_viv i.dg_cie_10_rec i.sud_severity_icd10 n_
> off_vio n_off_acq n_off_sud i.clas porc_pobr i.macrozone"
. global covs_3 "poly sus_prin_mod fr_sus_prin edad_al_ing_1 edad_ini_cons sex_enc esc_rec ten_viv dg_cie_10_rec n_off_vio n_off_acq n_off_sud clas po
> rc_pobr macrozone"
.
. local stname `" "poly " "poly " "poly _start" "'
. forvalues i = 1/3 {
2. gettoken covs stname : stname
3. /*
> // Cox w/tvc
> forvalues j=1/7 {
> di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
> di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Cox tvc `j'}"
> di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
> set seed 2125
> qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans==`i', dist(cox) tvc(poly) dftvc(`j')
> estimates store m2_`i'_cox`j'
> }
> */
. // Exponential
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
4. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Exp}"
5. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
6. set seed 2125
7. qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans==`i', dist(exponential)
8. estimates store m2_`i'_exp
9.
. // Weibull
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
10. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Wei}"
11. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
12. set seed 2125
13. qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans==`i', dist(weibull)
14. //qui cap noi merlin (_time `covs' if _trans == `i', family(weibull, fail(_status)))
. estimates store m2_`i'_weib
15.
. // Gompertz
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
16. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Gomp}"
17. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
18. set seed 2125
19. qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans==`i', dist(gompertz)
20. //qui cap noi merlin (_time `covs' if _trans == `i', family(gompertz, fail(_status)))
. estimates store m2_`i'_gom
21.
. // Log logistic
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
22. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Logl}"
23. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
24. set seed 2125
25. qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans==`i', dist(loglogistic)
26. //qui cap noi merlin (_time `covs' if _trans == `i', family(loglogistic, fail(_status)))
. estimates store m2_`i'_logl
27.
. // Log normal
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
28. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Logn}"
29. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
30. set seed 2125
31. qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans==`i', dist(lognormal)
32. //qui cap noi merlin (_time `covs' if _trans == `i', family(lognormal, fail(_status)))
. estimates store m2_`i'_logn
33.
. // Generalised gamma
. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
34. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family Ggam}"
35. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
36. set seed 2125
37. qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans==`i', dist(ggamma)
38. //qui cap noi merlin (_time `covs' if _trans == `i', family(ggamma, fail(_status)))
. estimates store m2_`i'_ggam
39.
. // Royston Parmar models
. forvalues j=1/5 {
40. forvalues h=1/5 {
41. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
42. di in yellow "{bf: Transition `i': family RP`j'}"
43. di in yellow "{bf: ***********}"
44. set seed 2125
45. qui cap noi stmerlin `covs' if _trans == `i', dist(rp) df(`j') tvc(poly) dftvc(`h')
46. //qui cap noi merlin (_time `covs' if _trans == `i', family(rp, df(`j') fail(_status)))
. estimates store m2_`i'_rp`j'_tvc`h'
47. *estimates save "${pathdata2}parmodels.ster", append
. }
48. }
49. }
***********
Transition 1: family Exp
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -55001.472
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -54304.613
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -54227.703
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -54227.574
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -54227.574
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -54227.574
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.521127 .0163857 -31.80 0.000 -.5532424 -.4890117
_cons | -1.950331 .0132581 -147.10 0.000 -1.976316 -1.924345
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Wei
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -54423.905
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -53148.94
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -53002.961
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -53002.76
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -53002.76
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -53002.76
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4779332 .0164038 -29.14 0.000 -.5100841 -.4457823
_cons | -1.640239 .0143097 -114.62 0.000 -1.668285 -1.612192
log(gamma) | -.3111662 .0067626 -46.01 0.000 -.3244207 -.2979117
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Gomp
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -215357.72
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -54990.961
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49991.186
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48612.518
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48582.372
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48582.288
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -48582.288
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48582.288
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4134578 .0163908 -25.23 0.000 -.4455831 -.3813325
_cons | -1.036294 .0152295 -68.05 0.000 -1.066143 -1.006445
gamma | -.6570007 .0079438 -82.71 0.000 -.6725702 -.6414312
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Logl
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -80176.502 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -58625.108
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -52153.016
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -52094.951
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -52094.766
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -52094.766
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -52094.766
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6454712 .0231658 27.86 0.000 .600067 .6908754
_cons | 1.715243 .0201913 84.95 0.000 1.675669 1.754817
dap:1 | .1508718 .0066437 22.71 0.000 .1378504 .1638933
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Logn
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -104584.13 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -63789.57
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -51803.536
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -51036.169
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -50998.44
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -50998.291
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -50998.291
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -50998.291
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5679002 .0226723 25.05 0.000 .5234632 .6123372
_cons | 1.830376 .0206881 88.47 0.000 1.789828 1.870924
dap:1 | .6812063 .0063051 108.04 0.000 .6688485 .6935641
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family Ggam
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -94859.929 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -53108.893 (not concave)
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -51320.614
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -50685.714
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -50010.9
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -49786.855
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -49785.956
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -49785.956
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49785.956
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .3920686 .0232951 16.83 0.000 .3464112 .4377261
_cons | 1.078927 .0245324 43.98 0.000 1.030845 1.12701
log(sigma) | .8772563 .0061854 141.83 0.000 .8651333 .8893794
kappa | -1.361383 .0243838 -55.83 0.000 -1.409174 -1.313592
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 1: family RP1
***********
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -101872.98
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -53584.22
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -52981.45
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -52980.633
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -52980.633
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -52980.633
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4423648 .0172769 -25.60 0.000 -.4762269 -.4085028
poly#rcs() | -.0675214 .0102423 -6.59 0.000 -.087596 -.0474469
_cons | -1.192337 .0139144 -85.69 0.000 -1.219609 -1.165065
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49636.521
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -47814.837
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -47630.122
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -47498.947
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -47110.847
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -47107.139
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -47107.138
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -47107.138
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4682942 .0172641 -27.13 0.000 -.5021313 -.4344572
poly#rcs():1 | .138502 .0116669 11.87 0.000 .1156353 .1613687
poly#rcs():2 | .7593871 .0068541 110.79 0.000 .7459532 .772821
_cons | -1.192337 .0139144 -85.69 0.000 -1.219609 -1.165065
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49934.74
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -47855.349
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -47356.594
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -47305.061
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -47232.581
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -47030.073
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -46704.181
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -46694.194
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -46694.16
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -46694.16
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -46694.16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4544343 .0172635 -26.32 0.000 -.4882702 -.4205985
poly#rcs():1 | .0422071 .0113889 3.71 0.000 .0198853 .0645289
poly#rcs():2 | .3668022 .0118431 30.97 0.000 .3435902 .3900142
poly#rcs():3 | .2070382 .0055542 37.28 0.000 .1961521 .2179243
_cons | -1.192337 .0139144 -85.69 0.000 -1.219609 -1.165065
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49793.017
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -47729.398
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -47645.609
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -47517.704
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -46460.845
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -46366.794
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -46366.593
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -46366.593
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -46366.593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4694576 .0173032 -27.13 0.000 -.5033712 -.435544
poly#rcs():1 | .058264 .01132 5.15 0.000 .0360771 .0804509
poly#rcs():2 | .3505534 .0073016 48.01 0.000 .3362424 .3648644
poly#rcs():3 | .3204356 .0049884 64.24 0.000 .3106584 .3302127
poly#rcs():4 | -.0532644 .0029651 -17.96 0.000 -.0590758 -.047453
_cons | -1.192337 .0139144 -85.69 0.000 -1.219609 -1.165065
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49734.587
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48608.852
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -47837.275
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -47734.422
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -47654.457
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -47527.353
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -47135.492
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -46359.607
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -46324.418
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -46324.315
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -46324.315
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -46324.315
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.470552 .0173061 -27.19 0.000 -.5044713 -.4366328
poly#rcs():1 | .0592603 .0113497 5.22 0.000 .0370153 .0815052
poly#rcs():2 | .3498591 .0073384 47.68 0.000 .3354762 .364242
poly#rcs():3 | .3332323 .0050896 65.47 0.000 .323257 .3432077
poly#rcs():4 | -.026387 .0035094 -7.52 0.000 -.0332652 -.0195087
poly#rcs():5 | -.0209958 .0019052 -11.02 0.000 -.0247298 -.0172617
_cons | -1.192337 .0139144 -85.69 0.000 -1.219609 -1.165065
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47862.755
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45338.36
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45054.55
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44947.427
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44861.865
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44724.212
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44519.887
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44304.642
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -44202.113
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -44201.443
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -44201.19
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -44201.162
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -44201.161
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -44201.161
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.414726 .0163917 -25.30 0.000 -.4468532 -.3825988
poly#rcs() | .0131059 .001131 11.59 0.000 .0108891 .0153226
_cons | -1.256769 .0135239 -92.93 0.000 -1.283275 -1.230262
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47860.785
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45338.344
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45052.622
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44839.759
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44701.475
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44362.381
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44187.103
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44186.622
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -44186.493
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -44186.489
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -44186.489
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -44186.489
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3830171 .0174317 -21.97 0.000 -.4171826 -.3488516
poly#rcs():1 | -.0624033 .0140988 -4.43 0.000 -.0900364 -.0347702
poly#rcs():2 | -.0659282 .0122756 -5.37 0.000 -.0899879 -.0418685
_cons | -1.277614 .0141218 -90.47 0.000 -1.305292 -1.249936
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48891.142
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46117.377
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45364.565
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45253.317
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45073.103
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44530.978
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44189.564
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44080.778
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -44005.148
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43760.472
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43757.906
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -43757.606
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -43757.581
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -43757.581
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43757.581
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3680469 .0174357 -21.11 0.000 -.4022202 -.3338736
poly#rcs():1 | -.1619322 .0138958 -11.65 0.000 -.1891674 -.134697
poly#rcs():2 | -.4623466 .0155672 -29.70 0.000 -.4928577 -.4318354
poly#rcs():3 | .1793858 .0055172 32.51 0.000 .1685724 .1901993
_cons | -1.278556 .0141271 -90.50 0.000 -1.306245 -1.250868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48741.721
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45982.395
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45832.986
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45581.452
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44241.23
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44077.127
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43952.14
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43628.928
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43446.784
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43445.944
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43445.944
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43445.944
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3841805 .0174704 -21.99 0.000 -.4184218 -.3499391
poly#rcs():1 | -.1426415 .0138131 -10.33 0.000 -.1697147 -.1155682
poly#rcs():2 | -.4734061 .0125173 -37.82 0.000 -.4979396 -.4488725
poly#rcs():3 | .2731456 .0050224 54.38 0.000 .2633018 .2829894
poly#rcs():4 | -.0532644 .0029651 -17.96 0.000 -.0590758 -.047453
_cons | -1.277614 .0141218 -90.47 0.000 -1.305292 -1.249936
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48683.219
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -47186.141
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -46103.736
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45933.42
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45789.03
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -45540.65
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44749.264
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44223.571
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43885.632
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43574.039
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43405.504
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -43404.576
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -43404.535
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -43404.534
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43404.534
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3853482 .0174729 -22.05 0.000 -.4195945 -.3511019
poly#rcs():1 | -.1414941 .0138359 -10.23 0.000 -.1686119 -.1143763
poly#rcs():2 | -.4733451 .0125321 -37.77 0.000 -.4979075 -.4487826
poly#rcs():3 | .2750296 .0051416 53.49 0.000 .2649522 .285107
poly#rcs():4 | -.0291873 .0035085 -8.32 0.000 -.0360638 -.0223107
poly#rcs():5 | -.0208462 .0019053 -10.94 0.000 -.0245806 -.0171118
_cons | -1.277562 .0141215 -90.47 0.000 -1.305239 -1.249884
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48145.266
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45388.943
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -44747.494
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44636.547
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44464.435
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44009.366
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43749.077
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43742.246
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43742.228
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43742.228
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43742.228
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4194459 .0163899 -25.59 0.000 -.4515695 -.3873224
poly#rcs() | .0163235 .0006761 24.15 0.000 .0149985 .0176486
_cons | -1.236481 .0135201 -91.46 0.000 -1.26298 -1.209982
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48127.754
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45392.647
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45057.843
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44796.314
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44630.489
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44456.813
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43998.588
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43735.837
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43728.92
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43728.905
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43728.905
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43728.905
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3893982 .0174196 -22.35 0.000 -.42354 -.3552564
poly#rcs():1 | -.0529224 .0135604 -3.90 0.000 -.0795004 -.0263444
poly#rcs():2 | -.06027 .0117908 -5.11 0.000 -.0833796 -.0371604
_cons | -1.256273 .0141135 -89.01 0.000 -1.283935 -1.228611
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48119.226
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45395.298
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45058.512
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44794.825
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44706.4
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44639.38
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44538.7
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44243.854
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43736.177
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43711.888
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43711.805
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -43711.805
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43711.805
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3876959 .0174522 -22.21 0.000 -.4219016 -.3534903
poly#rcs():1 | -.0788219 .0146002 -5.40 0.000 -.1074377 -.0502061
poly#rcs():2 | -.1895193 .0262049 -7.23 0.000 -.2408799 -.1381587
poly#rcs():3 | .0611899 .0113737 5.38 0.000 .0388978 .083482
_cons | -1.259075 .0141479 -88.99 0.000 -1.286805 -1.231346
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48013.051
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -45301.411
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45036.731
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -44867.208
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44730.199
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44498.541
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43855.254
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43387.526
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43380.666
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43380.66
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43380.66
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43380.66
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4026047 .01749 -23.02 0.000 -.4368845 -.3683249
poly#rcs():1 | -.0628084 .0145009 -4.33 0.000 -.0912297 -.0343871
poly#rcs():2 | -.2001819 .024476 -8.18 0.000 -.2481539 -.15221
poly#rcs():3 | .1627894 .0106555 15.28 0.000 .1419051 .1836738
poly#rcs():4 | -.0676967 .0031313 -21.62 0.000 -.073834 -.0615594
_cons | -1.259019 .0141466 -89.00 0.000 -1.286746 -1.231292
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47922.076
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46447.862
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45425.451
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45274.47
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45149.907
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44944.209
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44777.762
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -44645.028
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -44414.861
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43780.964
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43347.188
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -43339.966
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -43339.963
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43339.963
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4037756 .0174938 -23.08 0.000 -.4380627 -.3694885
poly#rcs():1 | -.061564 .0145535 -4.23 0.000 -.0900884 -.0330397
poly#rcs():2 | -.1995131 .0247131 -8.07 0.000 -.2479498 -.1510764
poly#rcs():3 | .17055 .0103734 16.44 0.000 .1502185 .1908815
poly#rcs():4 | -.0535188 .0039841 -13.43 0.000 -.0613276 -.04571
poly#rcs():5 | -.0220247 .0019037 -11.57 0.000 -.0257558 -.0182936
_cons | -1.259057 .0141473 -89.00 0.000 -1.286785 -1.231328
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47868.959
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46409.679
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45412.902
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45109.472
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45016.019
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44861.566
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44377.634
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43344.519
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43311.213
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43311.118
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43311.118
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43311.118
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4167461 .0163909 -25.43 0.000 -.4488717 -.3846205
poly#rcs() | .0132506 .0009033 14.67 0.000 .0114801 .0150211
_cons | -1.249715 .0135486 -92.24 0.000 -1.27627 -1.22316
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47840.123
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46400.823
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45412.542
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45125.667
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44922.874
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44655.7
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43900.795
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43309.22
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43304.611
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43304.609
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43304.609
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.396629 .017347 -22.86 0.000 -.4306286 -.3626295
poly#rcs():1 | -.0331974 .0131147 -2.53 0.011 -.0589018 -.007493
poly#rcs():2 | -.0405039 .011412 -3.55 0.000 -.062871 -.0181368
_cons | -1.262965 .0140856 -89.66 0.000 -1.290572 -1.235357
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47822.087
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46397.728
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45413.462
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45126.298
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -44917.53
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44040.927
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43313.159
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43304.089
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43304.08
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43304.08
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43304.08
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3974226 .0173772 -22.87 0.000 -.4314813 -.3633639
poly#rcs():1 | -.0342702 .013375 -2.56 0.010 -.0604848 -.0080557
poly#rcs():2 | -.0562347 .0194657 -2.89 0.004 -.0943868 -.0180825
poly#rcs():3 | .0074645 .0085611 0.87 0.383 -.009315 .024244
_cons | -1.262638 .0140979 -89.56 0.000 -1.29027 -1.235007
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47812.652
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46393.489
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45884.054
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45470.192
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45154.418
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44920.678
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44650.565
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43896.227
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43305.948
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43301.298
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43301.295
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43301.295
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4017185 .0174823 -22.98 0.000 -.4359832 -.3674538
poly#rcs():1 | -.0292742 .0137354 -2.13 0.033 -.056195 -.0023534
poly#rcs():2 | -.0604205 .021051 -2.87 0.004 -.1016798 -.0191612
poly#rcs():3 | .0273337 .0129317 2.11 0.035 .0019881 .0526792
poly#rcs():4 | -.0120849 .0053542 -2.26 0.024 -.0225789 -.001591
_cons | -1.260076 .0141366 -89.14 0.000 -1.287783 -1.232369
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47769.09
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46337.315
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45830.834
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45425.828
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45132.306
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44955.92
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44428.881
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43323.684
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43284.029
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43283.911
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43283.911
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43283.911
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4055689 .0174741 -23.21 0.000 -.4398176 -.3713203
poly#rcs():1 | -.0281406 .0139852 -2.01 0.044 -.0555511 -.0007302
poly#rcs():2 | -.0741485 .0227382 -3.26 0.001 -.1187145 -.0295825
poly#rcs():3 | .0550853 .0135055 4.08 0.000 .028615 .0815556
poly#rcs():4 | -.0155515 .0052076 -2.99 0.003 -.0257583 -.0053447
poly#rcs():5 | -.0127256 .0021785 -5.84 0.000 -.0169954 -.0084558
_cons | -1.257855 .0141255 -89.05 0.000 -1.285541 -1.23017
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47736.332
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46272.719
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45777.213
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45395.319
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45272.88
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -45078.633
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44510.926
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43311.35
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43263.896
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43263.719
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43263.719
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43263.719
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4163268 .0163913 -25.40 0.000 -.4484531 -.3842005
poly#rcs() | .0128158 .0009549 13.42 0.000 .0109443 .0146874
_cons | -1.251321 .0135522 -92.33 0.000 -1.277883 -1.224759
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47705.669
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46265.299
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45776.083
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45590.1
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45285.91
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -45069.125
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -43380.161
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43258.087
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43257.769
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43257.769
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43257.769
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3972319 .0173383 -22.91 0.000 -.4312144 -.3632494
poly#rcs():1 | -.0313206 .0130702 -2.40 0.017 -.0569376 -.0057035
poly#rcs():2 | -.0384908 .0113706 -3.39 0.001 -.0607769 -.0162048
_cons | -1.263874 .0140807 -89.76 0.000 -1.291472 -1.236277
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47688.997
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46264.111
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45779.705
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45423.127
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45154.235
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44988.722
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44444.356
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43299.073
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43257.929
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43257.665
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43257.654
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -43257.654
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43257.654
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3978081 .0173667 -22.91 0.000 -.4318463 -.3637699
poly#rcs():1 | -.0315089 .0132189 -2.38 0.017 -.0574173 -.0056004
poly#rcs():2 | -.0463717 .018554 -2.50 0.012 -.0827368 -.0100066
poly#rcs():3 | .0033119 .0082169 0.40 0.687 -.0127929 .0194167
_cons | -1.263591 .0140907 -89.68 0.000 -1.291208 -1.235974
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47669.093
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46260.411
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45795.226
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45430.509
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45152.268
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44985.888
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44442.572
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43298.759
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43257.88
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43257.69
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43257.688
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -43257.688
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43257.688
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.3975968 .0174974 -22.72 0.000 -.431891 -.3633025
poly#rcs():1 | -.0315484 .0134928 -2.34 0.019 -.0579938 -.0051029
poly#rcs():2 | -.0441746 .0185337 -2.38 0.017 -.0805001 -.0078491
poly#rcs():3 | .0010339 .0116388 0.09 0.929 -.0217777 .0238455
poly#rcs():4 | .0002703 .0052134 0.05 0.959 -.0099478 .0104884
_cons | -1.263702 .0141535 -89.29 0.000 -1.291443 -1.235962
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 1: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -53812.514
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -47662.938
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -46259.161
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -45801.742
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -45431.672
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -45150.576
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -44981.101
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -44433.256
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -43285.036
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -43241.795
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -43241.542
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -43241.533
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -43241.533
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -43241.533
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.4018484 .0174855 -22.98 0.000 -.4361194 -.3675774
poly#rcs():1 | -.0272975 .0134476 -2.03 0.042 -.0536543 -.0009406
poly#rcs():2 | -.0411059 .018278 -2.25 0.025 -.0769302 -.0052817
poly#rcs():3 | .010951 .0117412 0.93 0.351 -.0120612 .0339633
poly#rcs():4 | .0103125 .0063074 1.63 0.102 -.0020498 .0226747
poly#rcs():5 | -.0182909 .0032023 -5.71 0.000 -.0245672 -.0120146
_cons | -1.261041 .014137 -89.20 0.000 -1.288749 -1.233332
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family Exp
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49636.228
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49236.431
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49228.581
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49228.579
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49228.579
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5840032 .0234783 24.87 0.000 .5379866 .6300199
_cons | -2.932274 .0216625 -135.36 0.000 -2.974732 -2.889816
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Wei
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -167702.36
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49634.874
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49233.098
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49224.919
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49224.917
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49224.917
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .580905 .0235066 24.71 0.000 .534833 .626977
_cons | -2.955191 .023285 -126.91 0.000 -3.000829 -2.909553
log(gamma) | .0184198 .0067766 2.72 0.007 .0051378 .0317018
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Gomp
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -214004.6
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49910.931
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49044.71
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49018.254
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49018.226
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -49018.226
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49018.226
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6149108 .0235168 26.15 0.000 .5688188 .6610029
_cons | -2.75604 .0232029 -118.78 0.000 -2.801517 -2.710564
gamma | -.0908748 .004575 -19.86 0.000 -.0998417 -.0819079
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Logl
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -83752.762 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -57552.399
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -54383.306
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48943.383
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48795.127
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48794.082
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -48794.082
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48794.082
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.606375 .0229937 -26.37 0.000 -.6514418 -.5613083
_cons | 2.578203 .0228087 113.04 0.000 2.533499 2.622908
dap:1 | -.1574487 .0067608 -23.29 0.000 -.1706996 -.1441978
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Logn
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -106259.02 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -61501.532
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48793.305
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48310.365
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48307.03
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48307.026
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48307.026
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.6017802 .0222481 -27.05 0.000 -.6453856 -.5581748
_cons | 2.646607 .0227845 116.16 0.000 2.60195 2.691263
dap:1 | .4308997 .006272 68.70 0.000 .4186069 .4431926
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family Ggam
***********
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -98153.176 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -53244.114
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -50377.271 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -50113.281 (not concave)
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48980.503
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48160.365
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -48137.847
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -48137.739
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -48137.739
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48137.739
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.5932408 .0214675 -27.63 0.000 -.6353164 -.5511653
_cons | 2.33194 .0300122 77.70 0.000 2.273117 2.390763
log(sigma) | .5990769 .0090235 66.39 0.000 .5813911 .6167627
kappa | -.6961001 .0390472 -17.83 0.000 -.7726311 -.6195691
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 2: family RP1
***********
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -100119.95
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -49988.016
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -49217.087
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -49204.947
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -49204.918
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -49204.918
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -49204.918
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6637345 .0272559 24.35 0.000 .6103139 .7171551
poly#rcs() | -.1234693 .0199787 -6.18 0.000 -.1626267 -.0843118
_cons | -2.371501 .025101 -94.48 0.000 -2.420698 -2.322304
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48296.138
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48213.805
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48213.719
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48213.719
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48213.719
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6304103 .027313 23.08 0.000 .5768777 .6839428
poly#rcs():1 | .0474816 .0209292 2.27 0.023 .0064611 .0885021
poly#rcs():2 | .3009671 .0073163 41.14 0.000 .2866275 .3153067
_cons | -2.371501 .025101 -94.48 0.000 -2.420698 -2.322304
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48359.536
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48212.807
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48211.342
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48211.342
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48211.342
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .630467 .0273131 23.08 0.000 .5769344 .6839997
poly#rcs():1 | .0469601 .0210034 2.24 0.025 .0057941 .0881261
poly#rcs():2 | .2983827 .010362 28.80 0.000 .2780736 .3186918
poly#rcs():3 | .0193126 .005092 3.79 0.000 .0093326 .0292927
_cons | -2.371501 .025101 -94.48 0.000 -2.420698 -2.322304
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48398.834
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48211.134
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48207.672
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48207.67
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48207.67
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6310654 .0273119 23.11 0.000 .5775351 .6845958
poly#rcs():1 | .0494586 .0210516 2.35 0.019 .0081983 .0907189
poly#rcs():2 | .3099955 .0119821 25.87 0.000 .286511 .3334799
poly#rcs():3 | .0165294 .0071482 2.31 0.021 .0025192 .0305397
poly#rcs():4 | .0104356 .0030109 3.47 0.001 .0045343 .0163369
_cons | -2.371501 .025101 -94.48 0.000 -2.420698 -2.322304
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP1
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48408.04
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48210.597
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48207.124
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48207.122
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48207.122
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6311366 .027312 23.11 0.000 .5776061 .6846671
poly#rcs():1 | .0489545 .0210818 2.32 0.020 .0076348 .0902741
poly#rcs():2 | .3075064 .0129647 23.72 0.000 .2820961 .3329166
poly#rcs():3 | .0244661 .0084683 2.89 0.004 .0078686 .0410636
poly#rcs():4 | .0096191 .0036308 2.65 0.008 .0025029 .0167353
poly#rcs():5 | .0050618 .0020179 2.51 0.012 .0011067 .0090169
_cons | -2.371501 .025101 -94.48 0.000 -2.420698 -2.322304
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48164.795
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48069.82
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48069.01
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48069.01
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48069.01
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6865902 .0269198 25.50 0.000 .6338283 .7393521
poly#rcs() | -.1028959 .0202288 -5.09 0.000 -.1425437 -.0632481
_cons | -2.428401 .0249379 -97.38 0.000 -2.477278 -2.379523
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48171.544
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48069.542
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48068.69
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48068.69
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48068.69
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6929505 .0281033 24.66 0.000 .6378691 .748032
poly#rcs():1 | -.1158181 .0259983 -4.45 0.000 -.1667739 -.0648623
poly#rcs():2 | -.0170132 .0213076 -0.80 0.425 -.0587753 .0247489
_cons | -2.434041 .0259587 -93.77 0.000 -2.484919 -2.383163
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48238.614
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48069.972
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48068.537
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48068.537
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48068.537
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6915025 .0280772 24.63 0.000 .6364723 .7465327
poly#rcs():1 | -.1143971 .0260009 -4.40 0.000 -.165358 -.0634362
poly#rcs():2 | -.0189054 .0226033 -0.84 0.403 -.0632071 .0253964
poly#rcs():3 | .003065 .0051873 0.59 0.555 -.0071019 .0132319
_cons | -2.432825 .0259358 -93.80 0.000 -2.483658 -2.381992
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48282.521
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48064.807
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48062.641
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48062.641
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48062.641
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6936057 .0281022 24.68 0.000 .6385264 .748685
poly#rcs():1 | -.1138409 .0260969 -4.36 0.000 -.1649899 -.0626918
poly#rcs():2 | -.0064641 .023243 -0.28 0.781 -.0520195 .0390912
poly#rcs():3 | -.01453 .0074107 -1.96 0.050 -.0290546 -5.37e-06
poly#rcs():4 | .0104355 .0030109 3.47 0.001 .0045343 .0163368
_cons | -2.434041 .0259587 -93.77 0.000 -2.484919 -2.383163
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP2
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48303.182
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48065.18
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48062.179
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48062.177
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48062.177
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6936173 .0281012 24.68 0.000 .6385399 .7486947
poly#rcs():1 | -.1141587 .0261153 -4.37 0.000 -.1653438 -.0629736
poly#rcs():2 | -.007721 .0237077 -0.33 0.745 -.0541872 .0387451
poly#rcs():3 | -.0140528 .0088117 -1.59 0.111 -.0313235 .0032179
poly#rcs():4 | .0064691 .0036335 1.78 0.075 -.0006524 .0135906
poly#rcs():5 | .0053331 .0020187 2.64 0.008 .0013765 .0092897
_cons | -2.433994 .0259578 -93.77 0.000 -2.484871 -2.383118
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48228.514
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48068.308
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48066.671
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48066.67
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48066.67
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6866916 .0269185 25.51 0.000 .6339324 .7394509
poly#rcs() | -.1027061 .0202451 -5.07 0.000 -.1423857 -.0630264
_cons | -2.428398 .0249363 -97.38 0.000 -2.477272 -2.379523
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48232.882
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48068.159
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48066.217
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48066.215
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48066.215
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6943006 .0281191 24.69 0.000 .6391882 .749413
poly#rcs():1 | -.1181199 .0260498 -4.53 0.000 -.1691766 -.0670632
poly#rcs():2 | -.0202849 .0213386 -0.95 0.342 -.0621078 .021538
_cons | -2.435138 .0259723 -93.76 0.000 -2.486043 -2.384234
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48241.354
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48065.814
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48063.502
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48063.499
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48063.499
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6937097 .0281147 24.67 0.000 .6386059 .7488135
poly#rcs():1 | -.1355216 .0277625 -4.88 0.000 -.189935 -.0811081
poly#rcs():2 | -.0696356 .0315172 -2.21 0.027 -.1314082 -.0078629
poly#rcs():3 | .0352623 .0153305 2.30 0.021 .0052152 .0653095
_cons | -2.434744 .025971 -93.75 0.000 -2.485646 -2.383841
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48281.439
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48061.283
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48059.564
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48059.564
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48059.564
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6943941 .0281137 24.70 0.000 .6392922 .7494961
poly#rcs():1 | -.1342064 .0278002 -4.83 0.000 -.1886938 -.0797191
poly#rcs():2 | -.0621314 .0325287 -1.91 0.056 -.1258865 .0016237
poly#rcs():3 | .0220307 .015557 1.42 0.157 -.0084604 .0525218
poly#rcs():4 | .0143991 .0039611 3.64 0.000 .0066355 .0221627
_cons | -2.434767 .0259705 -93.75 0.000 -2.485668 -2.383866
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP3
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48302.785
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48062.614
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48059.18
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48059.179
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48059.179
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6944313 .0281143 24.70 0.000 .6393282 .7495344
poly#rcs():1 | -.1341915 .0278494 -4.82 0.000 -.1887754 -.0796077
poly#rcs():2 | -.0626093 .0330067 -1.90 0.058 -.1273013 .0020827
poly#rcs():3 | .018647 .0151335 1.23 0.218 -.0110141 .0483081
poly#rcs():4 | .016283 .0061621 2.64 0.008 .0042056 .0283604
poly#rcs():5 | .0052394 .0020373 2.57 0.010 .0012463 .0092325
_cons | -2.434769 .0259713 -93.75 0.000 -2.485671 -2.383866
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48262.842
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48064.798
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48062.649
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48062.649
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48062.649
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6869715 .0269156 25.52 0.000 .6342178 .7397252
poly#rcs() | -.1016544 .0202495 -5.02 0.000 -.1413427 -.0619662
_cons | -2.42821 .0249317 -97.39 0.000 -2.477075 -2.379345
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48267.986
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48064.185
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48062.206
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48062.206
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48062.206
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6944134 .0280929 24.72 0.000 .6393522 .7494745
poly#rcs():1 | -.1167693 .0259777 -4.49 0.000 -.1676848 -.0658539
poly#rcs():2 | -.0199637 .0212565 -0.94 0.348 -.0616257 .0216983
_cons | -2.434806 .0259488 -93.83 0.000 -2.485665 -2.383947
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48273.719
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48061.718
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48059.713
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48059.713
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48059.713
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6949001 .0281045 24.73 0.000 .6398162 .7499839
poly#rcs():1 | -.1353548 .0277099 -4.88 0.000 -.1896651 -.0810445
poly#rcs():2 | -.0692527 .0315158 -2.20 0.028 -.1310225 -.0074829
poly#rcs():3 | .0323921 .0151371 2.14 0.032 .0027238 .0620603
_cons | -2.435418 .0259614 -93.81 0.000 -2.486302 -2.384535
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48284.059
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48060.972
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48058.948
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48058.948
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48058.948
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .695295 .0281312 24.72 0.000 .6401588 .7504312
poly#rcs():1 | -.139879 .0285187 -4.90 0.000 -.1957746 -.0839833
poly#rcs():2 | -.0823333 .0383431 -2.15 0.032 -.1574843 -.0071823
poly#rcs():3 | .0372395 .0214013 1.74 0.082 -.0047064 .0791854
poly#rcs():4 | .0072984 .0088995 0.82 0.412 -.0101444 .0247412
_cons | -2.43573 .0259901 -93.72 0.000 -2.48667 -2.384791
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP4
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48303.038
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48062.093
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48058.28
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48058.277
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48058.277
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6953383 .0281281 24.72 0.000 .6402082 .7504684
poly#rcs():1 | -.1410301 .0285361 -4.94 0.000 -.1969597 -.0851004
poly#rcs():2 | -.0865289 .0388077 -2.23 0.026 -.1625906 -.0104672
poly#rcs():3 | .0370799 .0214629 1.73 0.084 -.0049867 .0791465
poly#rcs():4 | .0109015 .0079494 1.37 0.170 -.0046791 .0264821
poly#rcs():5 | .004044 .0033376 1.21 0.226 -.0024975 .0105855
_cons | -2.435647 .0259854 -93.73 0.000 -2.486577 -2.384716
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48284.762
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48065.122
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48062.132
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48062.131
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48062.131
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6869375 .0269155 25.52 0.000 .6341841 .7396908
poly#rcs() | -.1011963 .0202559 -5.00 0.000 -.1408972 -.0614955
_cons | -2.428157 .0249315 -97.39 0.000 -2.477022 -2.379292
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48290.392
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48064.807
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48061.664
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48061.663
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48061.663
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6945858 .0280928 24.72 0.000 .6395249 .7496467
poly#rcs():1 | -.1167227 .0259769 -4.49 0.000 -.1676365 -.0658089
poly#rcs():2 | -.0205186 .0212487 -0.97 0.334 -.0621652 .021128
_cons | -2.434934 .0259485 -93.84 0.000 -2.485792 -2.384076
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48299.385
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48063.072
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48059.08
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48059.077
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48059.077
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6952838 .0281093 24.74 0.000 .6401906 .750377
poly#rcs():1 | -.1361987 .0278243 -4.89 0.000 -.1907333 -.0816641
poly#rcs():2 | -.0718195 .0319046 -2.25 0.024 -.1343514 -.0092876
poly#rcs():3 | .0335336 .015358 2.18 0.029 .0034324 .0636348
_cons | -2.435707 .0259656 -93.81 0.000 -2.486599 -2.384815
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48300.107
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48062.923
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48058.769
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48058.765
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48058.765
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6955783 .0281292 24.73 0.000 .6404461 .7507104
poly#rcs():1 | -.1393613 .0284427 -4.90 0.000 -.1951079 -.0836147
poly#rcs():2 | -.0824622 .0377349 -2.19 0.029 -.1564212 -.0085032
poly#rcs():3 | .0373788 .0206376 1.81 0.070 -.0030702 .0778278
poly#rcs():4 | .0053497 .0082404 0.65 0.516 -.0108012 .0215005
_cons | -2.436019 .0259898 -93.73 0.000 -2.486958 -2.38508
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 2: family RP5
***********
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 2: _cmp_1_2_1 to _cmp_1_2_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49923.846
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -48303.005
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -48061.66
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -48057.413
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -48057.406
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -48057.406
Survival model Number of obs = 59,763
Log likelihood = -48057.406
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6964846 .0281554 24.74 0.000 .6413009 .7516682
poly#rcs():1 | -.149419 .0295291 -5.06 0.000 -.2072948 -.0915431
poly#rcs():2 | -.1127184 .0443446 -2.54 0.011 -.1996322 -.0258046
poly#rcs():3 | .0599956 .0272383 2.20 0.028 .0066095 .1133817
poly#rcs():4 | .0002916 .0104451 0.03 0.978 -.0201804 .0207637
poly#rcs():5 | .0083465 .0059358 1.41 0.160 -.0032874 .0199804
_cons | -2.436849 .0260162 -93.67 0.000 -2.48784 -2.385858
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family Exp
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49646.765
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -11229.437
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -11125.97
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -11125.285
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -11125.285
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -11125.285
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5734845 .046608 12.30 0.000 .4821345 .6648345
_start | -.296009 .0385497 -7.68 0.000 -.3715651 -.220453
_cons | -2.981889 .0540347 -55.18 0.000 -3.087795 -2.875983
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Wei
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -49646.765
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -11213.134
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10992.086
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10960.092
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10958.766
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10958.765
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10958.765
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6431208 .0467144 13.77 0.000 .5515622 .7346793
_start | -.0529705 .0408642 -1.30 0.195 -.1330629 .0271218
_cons | -2.039301 .0848113 -24.05 0.000 -2.205529 -1.873074
log(gamma) | -.746347 .0601666 -12.40 0.000 -.8642715 -.6284226
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Gomp
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -69691.197
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -11675.204
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10964.768
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10957.985
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10957.956
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10957.956
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10957.956
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6593661 .0467552 14.10 0.000 .5677277 .7510046
_start | -.1101317 .0402666 -2.74 0.006 -.1890528 -.0312106
_cons | -2.618488 .0573094 -45.69 0.000 -2.730812 -2.506164
gamma | -.2013969 .0117557 -17.13 0.000 -.2244376 -.1783561
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Logl
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -17531.748 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -12433.611 (not concave)
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -11438.793 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -11182.658 (not concave)
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -11100.718 (not concave)
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -11036.897
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10961.271
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10955.32
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10955.132
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10955.132
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10955.132
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -1.277005 .1172713 -10.89 0.000 -1.506853 -1.047158
_start | .1329415 .0865178 1.54 0.124 -.0366303 .3025132
_cons | 3.581203 .1341677 26.69 0.000 3.318239 3.844167
dap:1 | .4641941 .0475311 9.77 0.000 .3710349 .5573533
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Logn
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -29041.766 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -13623.621 (not concave)
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -12083.1
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -11889.539
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10982.475
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10959.554
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10955.378
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10955.327
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10955.327
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10955.327
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -1.250195 .1154302 -10.83 0.000 -1.476434 -1.023956
_start | .1432387 .0877648 1.63 0.103 -.0287772 .3152546
_cons | 3.64529 .1366046 26.68 0.000 3.37755 3.91303
dap:1 | .9172764 .0436906 20.99 0.000 .8316444 1.002908
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***********
Transition 3: family Ggam
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -14884.797 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -13078.689 (not concave)
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -12236.108 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -12154.221 (not concave)
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -12090.511 (not concave)
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -12040.778 (not concave)
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -11422.885 (not concave)
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -11237.632 (not concave)
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -11233.112 (not concave)
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -11232.999 (not concave)
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -11232.988 (not concave)
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -11232.979 (not concave)
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -11232.978 (not concave)
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -11232.976 (not concave)
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -11232.965 (not concave)
Iteration 15: log likelihood = -11232.956 (not concave)
Iteration 16: log likelihood = -11232.897 (not concave)
Iteration 17: log likelihood = -11232.885 (not concave)
could not calculate numerical derivatives -- discontinuous region with missing values encountered
***********
Transition 3: family RP1
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -24856.301 (not concave)
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -13186.775 (not concave)
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -11676.161 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -11188.941 (not concave)
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -11107.416
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -11051.095
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10993.382
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10991.387
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10960.525
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10958.88
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10958.738
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10958.738
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10958.738
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6694297 .121093 5.53 0.000 .4320919 .9067676
_start | -.0531614 .0408705 -1.30 0.193 -.1332661 .0269432
poly#rcs() | -.0107703 .0463206 -0.23 0.816 -.1015569 .0800163
_cons | -1.494703 .1096647 -13.63 0.000 -1.709642 -1.279764
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP1
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10986.569
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.898
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10953.596
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10953.499
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10953.499
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10953.499
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .3806532 .1232843 3.09 0.002 .1390204 .622286
_start | -.0664203 .0413881 -1.60 0.109 -.1475394 .0146988
poly#rcs():1 | .1093519 .0521434 2.10 0.036 .0071527 .2115511
poly#rcs():2 | .0479713 .0144316 3.32 0.001 .0196858 .0762567
_cons | -1.489015 .1087398 -13.69 0.000 -1.702141 -1.275889
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP1
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10986.201
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.356
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10952.869
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10952.301
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.3
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10952.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .4328561 .1376291 3.15 0.002 .163108 .7026042
_start | -.0711787 .0414838 -1.72 0.086 -.1524856 .0101281
poly#rcs():1 | .08411 .0586901 1.43 0.152 -.0309206 .1991405
poly#rcs():2 | .03445 .0175678 1.96 0.050 .0000177 .0688823
poly#rcs():3 | .0104576 .0051996 2.01 0.044 .0002666 .0206486
_cons | -1.486955 .1084082 -13.72 0.000 -1.699432 -1.274479
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP1
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10985.482
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10954.068
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10951.95
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10951.469
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10951.468
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10951.468
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .4147633 .1338536 3.10 0.002 .1524152 .6771115
_start | -.0710653 .0414558 -1.71 0.086 -.1523172 .0101865
poly#rcs():1 | .0935882 .0575373 1.63 0.104 -.0191828 .2063592
poly#rcs():2 | .0391494 .0182504 2.15 0.032 .0033793 .0749195
poly#rcs():3 | .0091766 .0060476 1.52 0.129 -.0026764 .0210297
poly#rcs():4 | .0061983 .0037115 1.67 0.095 -.0010762 .0134727
_cons | -1.487004 .1084143 -13.72 0.000 -1.699492 -1.274516
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP1
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_1
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10984.321
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10953.133
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10951.035
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10950.521
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10950.521
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10950.521
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .4200581 .1366739 3.07 0.002 .1521823 .687934
_start | -.0715154 .0414572 -1.73 0.085 -.15277 .0097391
poly#rcs():1 | .0910845 .0589303 1.55 0.122 -.0244168 .2065858
poly#rcs():2 | .0370686 .0191081 1.94 0.052 -.0003827 .0745198
poly#rcs():3 | .010219 .0063952 1.60 0.110 -.0023154 .0227534
poly#rcs():4 | .0064763 .0036912 1.75 0.079 -.0007583 .0137109
poly#rcs():5 | .0049873 .0026773 1.86 0.062 -.0002602 .0102348
_cons | -1.486809 .1083825 -13.72 0.000 -1.699235 -1.274383
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP2
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10999.252
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.771
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10953.651
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10953.549
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10953.549
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10953.549
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6563647 .0725437 9.05 0.000 .5141817 .7985478
_start | -.0666378 .0414459 -1.61 0.108 -.1478702 .0145946
poly#rcs() | -.0038174 .0365362 -0.10 0.917 -.075427 .0677922
_cons | -1.744355 .083184 -20.97 0.000 -1.907392 -1.581317
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP2
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10987.342
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.586
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10955.238
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10953.27
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10953.198
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10953.198
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10953.198
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5426886 .1795456 3.02 0.003 .1907857 .8945916
_start | -.0671818 .0414448 -1.62 0.105 -.1484121 .0140486
poly#rcs():1 | .048127 .07868 0.61 0.541 -.106083 .2023371
poly#rcs():2 | .0263268 .0313359 0.84 0.401 -.0350905 .0877441
_cons | -1.650633 .1701258 -9.70 0.000 -1.984073 -1.317192
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP2
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10986.982
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.06
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10954.606
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10952.495
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.037
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10952.036
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10952.036
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5871627 .194506 3.02 0.003 .2059378 .9683875
_start | -.0719279 .0415412 -1.73 0.083 -.1533472 .0094914
poly#rcs():1 | .0258354 .0846603 0.31 0.760 -.1400958 .1917666
poly#rcs():2 | .0140112 .0331207 0.42 0.672 -.0509041 .0789266
poly#rcs():3 | .0094578 .0053673 1.76 0.078 -.001062 .0199776
_cons | -1.640071 .1740485 -9.42 0.000 -1.9812 -1.298942
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP2
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10986.232
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10953.741
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10953.343
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10951.538
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10951.165
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10951.165
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10951.165
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5766755 .1864506 3.09 0.002 .2112391 .9421119
_start | -.0718405 .0415129 -1.73 0.084 -.1532043 .0095234
poly#rcs():1 | .0322259 .0822693 0.39 0.695 -.1290191 .1934708
poly#rcs():2 | .0174459 .0332534 0.52 0.600 -.0477296 .0826213
poly#rcs():3 | .0073567 .00648 1.14 0.256 -.0053439 .0200573
poly#rcs():4 | .0062011 .0037125 1.67 0.095 -.0010753 .0134776
_cons | -1.648433 .1693741 -9.73 0.000 -1.9804 -1.316466
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP2
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_2
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10985.067
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10952.806
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10952.395
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10950.61
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10950.209
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10950.209
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10950.209
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5835193 .1875862 3.11 0.002 .2158571 .9511815
_start | -.0722976 .0415146 -1.74 0.082 -.1536649 .0090696
poly#rcs():1 | .0290553 .0830145 0.35 0.726 -.1336501 .1917606
poly#rcs():2 | .0151016 .0336978 0.45 0.654 -.0509449 .0811481
poly#rcs():3 | .0080211 .0069711 1.15 0.250 -.005642 .0216842
poly#rcs():4 | .0062771 .0037002 1.70 0.090 -.0009753 .0135294
poly#rcs():5 | .0050138 .0026784 1.87 0.061 -.0002358 .0102633
_cons | -1.649777 .1683694 -9.80 0.000 -1.979775 -1.319779
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP3
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10999.217
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.534
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10953.511
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10952.953
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.952
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10952.952
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6558856 .0769267 8.53 0.000 .5051121 .8066591
_start | -.0705206 .0415825 -1.70 0.090 -.1520208 .0109796
poly#rcs() | -.0021974 .037671 -0.06 0.953 -.0760311 .0716364
_cons | -1.705974 .1010922 -16.88 0.000 -1.904111 -1.507837
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP3
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10987.245
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.494 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10954.948
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10952.892
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.725
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10952.705
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10952.705
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10952.705
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5392989 .2163686 2.49 0.013 .1152243 .9633735
_start | -.0708186 .0415922 -1.70 0.089 -.1523378 .0107006
poly#rcs():1 | .0488178 .0907714 0.54 0.591 -.1290909 .2267265
poly#rcs():2 | .0228008 .0325183 0.70 0.483 -.0409339 .0865354
_cons | -1.613325 .2090862 -7.72 0.000 -2.023127 -1.203524
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP3
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10994.236
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10982.681
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10955.319
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10954.806
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.896
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10952.679
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10952.677
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10952.673
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10952.673
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10952.672
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10952.672
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10952.672
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10952.672
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.5329907 1.655943 -0.32 0.748 -3.778579 2.712598
_start | -.072693 .041573 -1.75 0.080 -.1541746 .0087886
poly#rcs():1 | .2907766 .2033438 1.43 0.153 -.1077699 .689323
poly#rcs():2 | .0481048 .021669 2.22 0.026 .0056344 .0905752
poly#rcs():3 | .0112647 .0063111 1.78 0.074 -.0011049 .0236343
_cons | -.5202265 1.653982 -0.31 0.753 -3.761971 2.721518
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP3
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10994.189
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10982.584
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10954.971
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10952.978
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10951.861 (not concave)
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10951.859
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10951.853
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10951.836 (not concave)
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10951.834 (not concave)
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10951.834
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10951.831
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10951.826
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -10951.825
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -10951.825
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10951.825
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.6189099 1.539839 -0.40 0.688 -3.636939 2.399119
_start | -.0725617 .0415389 -1.75 0.081 -.1539765 .008853
poly#rcs():1 | .3079543 .1769708 1.74 0.082 -.038902 .6548106
poly#rcs():2 | .0523242 .0223209 2.34 0.019 .0085762 .0960723
poly#rcs():3 | .0105603 .0066208 1.60 0.111 -.0024162 .0235369
poly#rcs():4 | .0063853 .0037673 1.69 0.090 -.0009985 .0137692
_cons | -.4522955 1.53865 -0.29 0.769 -3.467993 2.563402
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP3
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_3
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10992.784
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10981.413
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10954.297
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10951.8
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10950.909
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10950.906
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10950.893
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10950.889
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10950.883
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10950.881
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10950.88
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10950.88
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -10950.88
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10950.88
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -.5680245 1.576654 -0.36 0.719 -3.658209 2.52216
_start | -.0730245 .0415442 -1.76 0.079 -.1544497 .0084007
poly#rcs():1 | .3003482 .1899032 1.58 0.114 -.0718553 .6725516
poly#rcs():2 | .0505412 .0228635 2.21 0.027 .0057296 .0953528
poly#rcs():3 | .0116807 .0069755 1.67 0.094 -.001991 .0253525
poly#rcs():4 | .0067687 .0038779 1.75 0.081 -.0008317 .0143692
poly#rcs():5 | .0050251 .0026804 1.87 0.061 -.0002284 .0102785
_cons | -.497737 1.574813 -0.32 0.752 -3.584315 2.588841
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP4
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10999.028
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.057
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10953.301
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10952.697
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.695
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10952.695
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10952.695
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6565629 .0763315 8.60 0.000 .506956 .8061698
_start | -.0708936 .0415773 -1.71 0.088 -.1523837 .0105965
poly#rcs() | -.0021599 .0375305 -0.06 0.954 -.0757184 .0713987
_cons | -1.710801 .1026877 -16.66 0.000 -1.912065 -1.509537
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP4
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10987.155
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10955.364 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10954.851
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10952.715
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.502
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10952.489
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10952.489
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10952.489
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5578022 .1981282 2.82 0.005 .1694781 .9461264
_start | -.0712103 .0415876 -1.71 0.087 -.1527206 .0103
poly#rcs():1 | .0415428 .084868 0.49 0.624 -.1247955 .207881
poly#rcs():2 | .0201882 .0314617 0.64 0.521 -.0414756 .081852
_cons | -1.632397 .1954744 -8.35 0.000 -2.01552 -1.249274
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP4
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10992.856
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10986.854
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10956.118
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10955.982
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10952.646 (not concave)
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10952.292 (not concave)
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10952.266
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10952.198
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10952.095
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10951.976
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10951.863
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10951.83
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -10951.768
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -10951.703
Iteration 15: log likelihood = -10951.652
Iteration 16: log likelihood = -10951.638
Iteration 17: log likelihood = -10951.613
Iteration 18: log likelihood = -10951.604
Iteration 19: log likelihood = -10951.591
Iteration 20: log likelihood = -10951.58
Iteration 21: log likelihood = -10951.57
Iteration 22: log likelihood = -10951.562
Iteration 23: log likelihood = -10951.549
Iteration 24: log likelihood = -10951.544
Iteration 25: log likelihood = -10951.535
Iteration 26: log likelihood = -10951.532
Iteration 27: log likelihood = -10951.523 (not concave)
Iteration 28: log likelihood = -10951.522 (not concave)
Iteration 29: log likelihood = -10951.522 (not concave)
Iteration 30: log likelihood = -10951.522
Iteration 31: log likelihood = -10951.52
Iteration 32: log likelihood = -10951.518
Iteration 33: log likelihood = -10951.515
Iteration 34: log likelihood = -10951.513
Iteration 35: log likelihood = -10951.511
Iteration 36: log likelihood = -10951.508
Iteration 37: log likelihood = -10951.507
Iteration 38: log likelihood = -10951.503
Iteration 39: log likelihood = -10951.503
Iteration 40: log likelihood = -10951.501 (not concave)
Iteration 41: log likelihood = -10951.501
Iteration 42: log likelihood = -10951.501
Iteration 43: log likelihood = -10951.5 (not concave)
Iteration 44: log likelihood = -10951.5
Iteration 45: log likelihood = -10951.499
Iteration 46: log likelihood = -10951.498
Iteration 47: log likelihood = -10951.497
Iteration 48: log likelihood = -10951.497
Iteration 49: log likelihood = -10951.495
Iteration 50: log likelihood = -10951.495
Iteration 51: log likelihood = -10951.494 (not concave)
Iteration 52: log likelihood = -10951.494
Iteration 53: log likelihood = -10951.493
Iteration 54: log likelihood = -10951.493
Iteration 55: log likelihood = -10951.492 (not concave)
Iteration 56: log likelihood = -10951.492 (not concave)
Iteration 57: log likelihood = -10951.492
Iteration 58: log likelihood = -10951.492
Iteration 59: log likelihood = -10951.491 (not concave)
Iteration 60: log likelihood = -10951.491
Iteration 61: log likelihood = -10951.491
Iteration 62: log likelihood = -10951.49 (not concave)
Iteration 63: log likelihood = -10951.49
Iteration 64: log likelihood = -10951.49
Iteration 65: log likelihood = -10951.49
Iteration 66: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 67: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 68: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 69: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 70: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 71: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 72: log likelihood = -10951.489
Iteration 73: log likelihood = -10951.489
Iteration 74: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 75: log likelihood = -10951.489
Iteration 76: log likelihood = -10951.489
Iteration 77: log likelihood = -10951.488
Iteration 78: log likelihood = -10951.488
Iteration 79: log likelihood = -10951.488
Iteration 80: log likelihood = -10951.488
Iteration 81: log likelihood = -10951.487
Iteration 82: log likelihood = -10951.487
Iteration 83: log likelihood = -10951.487
Iteration 84: log likelihood = -10951.487
Iteration 85: log likelihood = -10951.487
Iteration 86: log likelihood = -10951.486
Iteration 87: log likelihood = -10951.486
Iteration 88: log likelihood = -10951.486 (not concave)
Iteration 89: log likelihood = -10951.486
Iteration 90: log likelihood = -10951.486
Iteration 91: log likelihood = -10951.486
Iteration 92: log likelihood = -10951.486
Iteration 93: log likelihood = -10951.486
Iteration 94: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 95: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 96: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 97: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 98: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 99: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 100: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 101: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 102: log likelihood = -10951.485
Iteration 103: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 104: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 105: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 106: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 107: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 108: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 109: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 110: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 111: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 112: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 113: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 114: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 115: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 116: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 117: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 118: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 119: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 120: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 121: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 122: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 123: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 124: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 125: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 126: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 127: log likelihood = -10951.484
Iteration 128: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 129: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 130: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 131: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 132: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 133: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 134: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 135: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 136: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 137: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 138: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 139: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 140: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 141: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 142: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 143: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 144: log likelihood = -10951.483 (not concave)
Iteration 145: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 146: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 147: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 148: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 149: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 150: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 151: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 152: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 153: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 154: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 155: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 156: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 157: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 158: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 159: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 160: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 161: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 162: log likelihood = -10951.483 (not concave)
Iteration 163: log likelihood = -10951.483 (backed up)
Iteration 164: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 165: log likelihood = -10951.483 (not concave)
Iteration 166: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 167: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 168: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 169: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 170: log likelihood = -10951.483 (not concave)
Iteration 171: log likelihood = -10951.483 (backed up)
Iteration 172: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 173: log likelihood = -10951.483
Iteration 174: log likelihood = -10951.483
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10951.483
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | -6.980632 4.847463 -1.44 0.150 -16.48148 2.52022
_start | -.067987 .0414903 -1.64 0.101 -.1493066 .0133325
poly#rcs():1 | .4075271 .0414429 9.83 0.000 .3263004 .4887537
poly#rcs():2 | .0344163 .0175599 1.96 0.050 -5.30e-07 .0688332
poly#rcs():3 | .0104189 .0051928 2.01 0.045 .0002413 .0205966
_cons | 5.924705 4.846728 1.22 0.222 -3.574708 15.42412
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP4
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10994.203
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10973.9
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10951.723 (not concave)
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10951.529
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10949.908
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10949.862
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10949.83
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10949.818
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10949.785
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10949.745
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10949.74
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10949.74
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10949.74
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5295819 .3358483 1.58 0.115 -.1286687 1.187832
_start | -.0703529 .041574 -1.69 0.091 -.1518364 .0111306
poly#rcs():1 | .0473308 .1410077 0.34 0.737 -.2290392 .3237008
poly#rcs():2 | .0297928 .0481501 0.62 0.536 -.0645797 .1241653
poly#rcs():3 | .0103619 .0121432 0.85 0.393 -.0134384 .0341622
poly#rcs():4 | .018166 .008405 2.16 0.031 .0016925 .0346395
_cons | -1.602241 .3269581 -4.90 0.000 -2.243067 -.9614153
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP4
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_4
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10993.473
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10972.858
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10950.317
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10948.6
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10948.458
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10948.25
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10948.204
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10948.085
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10948.077
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10948.077
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10948.077
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5641087 .2676828 2.11 0.035 .0394599 1.088757
_start | -.0703296 .0415773 -1.69 0.091 -.1518195 .0111604
poly#rcs():1 | .0314977 .1175886 0.27 0.789 -.1989717 .2619672
poly#rcs():2 | .025254 .0433649 0.58 0.560 -.0597395 .1102476
poly#rcs():3 | .009472 .0121799 0.78 0.437 -.0144002 .0333442
poly#rcs():4 | .0202431 .008592 2.36 0.018 .0034032 .0370831
poly#rcs():5 | .0105369 .0039459 2.67 0.008 .0028031 .0182708
_cons | -1.631787 .2554824 -6.39 0.000 -2.132523 -1.131051
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP5
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_1
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10997.979
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10954.327
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10952.605
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10951.912
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10951.91
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10951.91
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10951.91
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .6562345 .0774175 8.48 0.000 .5044989 .8079701
_start | -.0717144 .0415819 -1.72 0.085 -.1532134 .0097845
poly#rcs() | -.0014993 .0378058 -0.04 0.968 -.0755972 .0725987
_cons | -1.702232 .1085448 -15.68 0.000 -1.914976 -1.489488
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP5
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_2
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10986.22
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10954.668 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10954.043
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10951.94
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10951.739
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10951.719
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10951.719
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10951.719
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .5552509 .2098022 2.65 0.008 .1440461 .9664557
_start | -.0720491 .0415925 -1.73 0.083 -.1535689 .0094706
poly#rcs():1 | .0427734 .0888756 0.48 0.630 -.1314196 .2169664
poly#rcs():2 | .0198277 .032139 0.62 0.537 -.0431635 .0828189
_cons | -1.623076 .2071282 -7.84 0.000 -2.02904 -1.217112
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP5
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_3
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10993.334 (not concave)
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10967.803 (not concave)
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10961.146 (not concave)
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10955.144 (not concave)
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10953.764
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10951.732 (not concave)
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10951.607 (not concave)
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10951.59 (not concave)
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10951.577 (not concave)
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10951.57 (not concave)
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10951.563 (not concave)
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10951.559 (not concave)
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -10951.555 (not concave)
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -10951.551 (not concave)
Iteration 15: log likelihood = -10951.549 (not concave)
Iteration 16: log likelihood = -10951.546 (not concave)
Iteration 17: log likelihood = -10951.544 (not concave)
Iteration 18: log likelihood = -10951.542 (not concave)
Iteration 19: log likelihood = -10951.541 (not concave)
Iteration 20: log likelihood = -10951.539 (not concave)
Iteration 21: log likelihood = -10951.538 (not concave)
Iteration 22: log likelihood = -10951.537 (not concave)
Iteration 23: log likelihood = -10951.536 (not concave)
Iteration 24: log likelihood = -10951.535 (not concave)
Iteration 25: log likelihood = -10951.534 (not concave)
Iteration 26: log likelihood = -10951.533 (not concave)
Iteration 27: log likelihood = -10951.532 (not concave)
Iteration 28: log likelihood = -10951.531 (not concave)
Iteration 29: log likelihood = -10951.53 (not concave)
Iteration 30: log likelihood = -10951.53 (not concave)
Iteration 31: log likelihood = -10951.529 (not concave)
Iteration 32: log likelihood = -10951.528 (not concave)
Iteration 33: log likelihood = -10951.528 (not concave)
Iteration 34: log likelihood = -10951.523 (not concave)
Iteration 35: log likelihood = -10951.517 (not concave)
Iteration 36: log likelihood = -10951.516 (not concave)
Iteration 37: log likelihood = -10951.503 (not concave)
Iteration 38: log likelihood = -10951.491 (not concave)
Iteration 39: log likelihood = -10951.49 (not concave)
Iteration 40: log likelihood = -10951.489 (not concave)
Iteration 41: log likelihood = -10951.477 (not concave)
Iteration 42: log likelihood = -10951.469 (not concave)
Iteration 43: log likelihood = -10951.467 (not concave)
Iteration 44: log likelihood = -10951.466 (not concave)
Iteration 45: log likelihood = -10951.464 (not concave)
Iteration 46: log likelihood = -10951.463 (not concave)
Iteration 47: log likelihood = -10951.462 (not concave)
Iteration 48: log likelihood = -10951.431 (not concave)
Iteration 49: log likelihood = -10951.427 (not concave)
Iteration 50: log likelihood = -10951.422 (not concave)
Iteration 51: log likelihood = -10951.416 (not concave)
Iteration 52: log likelihood = -10951.414 (not concave)
Iteration 53: log likelihood = -10951.412 (not concave)
Iteration 54: log likelihood = -10951.411 (not concave)
Iteration 55: log likelihood = -10951.409 (not concave)
Iteration 56: log likelihood = -10951.408 (not concave)
Iteration 57: log likelihood = -10951.407 (not concave)
Iteration 58: log likelihood = -10951.405 (not concave)
Iteration 59: log likelihood = -10951.404 (not concave)
Iteration 60: log likelihood = -10951.403 (not concave)
Iteration 61: log likelihood = -10951.402 (not concave)
Iteration 62: log likelihood = -10951.401 (not concave)
Iteration 63: log likelihood = -10951.4 (not concave)
Iteration 64: log likelihood = -10951.399 (not concave)
Iteration 65: log likelihood = -10951.398 (not concave)
Iteration 66: log likelihood = -10951.397 (not concave)
Iteration 67: log likelihood = -10951.396 (not concave)
Iteration 68: log likelihood = -10951.395 (not concave)
Iteration 69: log likelihood = -10951.394 (not concave)
Iteration 70: log likelihood = -10951.393 (not concave)
Iteration 71: log likelihood = -10951.392 (not concave)
Iteration 72: log likelihood = -10951.391 (not concave)
Iteration 73: log likelihood = -10951.39 (not concave)
Iteration 74: log likelihood = -10951.39 (not concave)
Iteration 75: log likelihood = -10951.389 (not concave)
Iteration 76: log likelihood = -10951.388 (not concave)
Iteration 77: log likelihood = -10951.387 (not concave)
Iteration 78: log likelihood = -10951.386 (not concave)
Iteration 79: log likelihood = -10951.385 (not concave)
Iteration 80: log likelihood = -10951.384 (not concave)
Iteration 81: log likelihood = -10951.383 (not concave)
Iteration 82: log likelihood = -10951.382 (not concave)
Iteration 83: log likelihood = -10951.381 (not concave)
Iteration 84: log likelihood = -10951.381 (not concave)
Iteration 85: log likelihood = -10951.38 (not concave)
Iteration 86: log likelihood = -10951.379 (not concave)
Iteration 87: log likelihood = -10951.378 (not concave)
Iteration 88: log likelihood = -10951.377 (not concave)
Iteration 89: log likelihood = -10951.376 (not concave)
Iteration 90: log likelihood = -10951.375 (not concave)
Iteration 91: log likelihood = -10951.374 (not concave)
Iteration 92: log likelihood = -10951.373 (not concave)
Iteration 93: log likelihood = -10951.372 (not concave)
Iteration 94: log likelihood = -10951.371 (not concave)
Iteration 95: log likelihood = -10951.371 (not concave)
Iteration 96: log likelihood = -10951.37 (not concave)
Iteration 97: log likelihood = -10951.369 (not concave)
Iteration 98: log likelihood = -10951.368 (not concave)
Iteration 99: log likelihood = -10951.367 (not concave)
Iteration 100: log likelihood = -10951.366 (not concave)
Iteration 101: log likelihood = -10951.365 (not concave)
Iteration 102: log likelihood = -10951.364 (not concave)
Iteration 103: log likelihood = -10951.363 (not concave)
Iteration 104: log likelihood = -10951.362 (not concave)
Iteration 105: log likelihood = -10951.361 (not concave)
Iteration 106: log likelihood = -10951.36 (not concave)
Iteration 107: log likelihood = -10951.359 (not concave)
Iteration 108: log likelihood = -10951.358 (not concave)
Iteration 109: log likelihood = -10951.357 (not concave)
Iteration 110: log likelihood = -10951.356 (not concave)
Iteration 111: log likelihood = -10951.355 (not concave)
Iteration 112: log likelihood = -10951.355 (not concave)
Iteration 113: log likelihood = -10951.354 (not concave)
Iteration 114: log likelihood = -10951.353 (not concave)
Iteration 115: log likelihood = -10951.352 (not concave)
Iteration 116: log likelihood = -10951.351 (not concave)
Iteration 117: log likelihood = -10951.35 (not concave)
Iteration 118: log likelihood = -10951.349 (not concave)
Iteration 119: log likelihood = -10951.348 (not concave)
Iteration 120: log likelihood = -10951.347 (not concave)
Iteration 121: log likelihood = -10951.346 (not concave)
Iteration 122: log likelihood = -10951.345 (not concave)
Iteration 123: log likelihood = -10951.344 (not concave)
Iteration 124: log likelihood = -10951.343 (not concave)
Iteration 125: log likelihood = -10951.342 (not concave)
Iteration 126: log likelihood = -10951.341 (not concave)
Iteration 127: log likelihood = -10951.34 (not concave)
Iteration 128: log likelihood = -10951.339 (not concave)
Iteration 129: log likelihood = -10951.338 (not concave)
Iteration 130: log likelihood = -10951.337 (not concave)
Iteration 131: log likelihood = -10951.336 (not concave)
Iteration 132: log likelihood = -10951.335 (not concave)
Iteration 133: log likelihood = -10951.334 (not concave)
Iteration 134: log likelihood = -10951.333 (not concave)
Iteration 135: log likelihood = -10951.332 (not concave)
Iteration 136: log likelihood = -10951.331 (not concave)
Iteration 137: log likelihood = -10951.33 (not concave)
Iteration 138: log likelihood = -10951.329 (not concave)
Iteration 139: log likelihood = -10951.328 (not concave)
Iteration 140: log likelihood = -10951.327 (not concave)
Iteration 141: log likelihood = -10951.326 (not concave)
Iteration 142: log likelihood = -10951.325 (not concave)
Iteration 143: log likelihood = -10951.324 (not concave)
Iteration 144: log likelihood = -10951.323 (not concave)
Iteration 145: log likelihood = -10951.322 (not concave)
Iteration 146: log likelihood = -10951.321 (not concave)
Iteration 147: log likelihood = -10951.32 (not concave)
Iteration 148: log likelihood = -10951.319 (not concave)
Iteration 149: log likelihood = -10951.318 (not concave)
Iteration 150: log likelihood = -10951.317 (not concave)
Iteration 151: log likelihood = -10951.316 (not concave)
Iteration 152: log likelihood = -10951.315 (not concave)
Iteration 153: log likelihood = -10951.314 (not concave)
Iteration 154: log likelihood = -10951.313 (not concave)
Iteration 155: log likelihood = -10951.311 (not concave)
Iteration 156: log likelihood = -10951.31 (not concave)
Iteration 157: log likelihood = -10951.309 (not concave)
Iteration 158: log likelihood = -10951.308 (not concave)
Iteration 159: log likelihood = -10951.307 (not concave)
Iteration 160: log likelihood = -10951.306 (not concave)
Iteration 161: log likelihood = -10951.305 (not concave)
Iteration 162: log likelihood = -10951.304 (not concave)
Iteration 163: log likelihood = -10951.303 (not concave)
Iteration 164: log likelihood = -10951.302 (not concave)
Iteration 165: log likelihood = -10951.301 (not concave)
Iteration 166: log likelihood = -10951.3 (not concave)
Iteration 167: log likelihood = -10951.299 (not concave)
Iteration 168: log likelihood = -10951.298 (not concave)
Iteration 169: log likelihood = -10951.297 (not concave)
Iteration 170: log likelihood = -10951.296 (not concave)
Iteration 171: log likelihood = -10951.295 (not concave)
Iteration 172: log likelihood = -10951.294 (not concave)
Iteration 173: log likelihood = -10951.293 (not concave)
Iteration 174: log likelihood = -10951.291 (not concave)
Iteration 175: log likelihood = -10951.29 (not concave)
Iteration 176: log likelihood = -10951.289 (not concave)
Iteration 177: log likelihood = -10951.288 (not concave)
Iteration 178: log likelihood = -10951.287 (not concave)
Iteration 179: log likelihood = -10951.286 (not concave)
Iteration 180: log likelihood = -10951.285 (not concave)
Iteration 181: log likelihood = -10951.284 (not concave)
Iteration 182: log likelihood = -10951.283 (not concave)
Iteration 183: log likelihood = -10951.282 (not concave)
Iteration 184: log likelihood = -10951.281 (not concave)
Iteration 185: log likelihood = -10951.28 (not concave)
Iteration 186: log likelihood = -10951.279 (not concave)
Iteration 187: log likelihood = -10951.278 (not concave)
Iteration 188: log likelihood = -10951.276 (not concave)
Iteration 189: log likelihood = -10951.275 (not concave)
Iteration 190: log likelihood = -10951.274 (not concave)
Iteration 191: log likelihood = -10951.273 (not concave)
Iteration 192: log likelihood = -10951.272 (not concave)
Iteration 193: log likelihood = -10951.271 (not concave)
Iteration 194: log likelihood = -10951.27 (not concave)
Iteration 195: log likelihood = -10951.269 (not concave)
Iteration 196: log likelihood = -10951.268 (not concave)
Iteration 197: log likelihood = -10951.267 (not concave)
Iteration 198: log likelihood = -10951.266 (not concave)
Iteration 199: log likelihood = -10951.265 (not concave)
Iteration 200: log likelihood = -10951.263 (not concave)
Iteration 201: log likelihood = -10951.262 (not concave)
Iteration 202: log likelihood = -10951.261 (not concave)
Iteration 203: log likelihood = -10951.26 (not concave)
Iteration 204: log likelihood = -10951.259 (not concave)
Iteration 205: log likelihood = -10951.258 (not concave)
Iteration 206: log likelihood = -10951.257 (not concave)
Iteration 207: log likelihood = -10951.256 (not concave)
Iteration 208: log likelihood = -10951.255 (not concave)
Iteration 209: log likelihood = -10951.254 (not concave)
Iteration 210: log likelihood = -10951.253 (not concave)
Iteration 211: log likelihood = -10951.251 (not concave)
Iteration 212: log likelihood = -10951.25 (not concave)
Iteration 213: log likelihood = -10951.249
Iteration 214: log likelihood = -10951.077 (backed up)
Iteration 215: log likelihood = -10950.992
Iteration 216: log likelihood = -10950.991
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10950.991
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .673588 .1770978 3.80 0.000 .3264828 1.020693
_start | -.0716747 .0415889 -1.72 0.085 -.1531874 .0098379
poly#rcs():1 | -.0150927 .0863898 -0.17 0.861 -.1844136 .1542282
poly#rcs():2 | -.0030257 .0391499 -0.08 0.938 -.0797581 .0737067
poly#rcs():3 | .0164398 .0143451 1.15 0.252 -.011676 .0445556
_cons | -1.721969 .1602497 -10.75 0.000 -2.036053 -1.407886
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP5
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_4
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10992.438
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10973.599
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10951.947 (not concave)
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10951.882
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10950.192
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10950.156
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10950.124
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10950.116
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10950.109
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10950.096
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10950.087
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10950.081
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -10950.08
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -10950.08
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10950.08
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .4996492 .5120319 0.98 0.329 -.5039149 1.503213
_start | -.0714766 .0415846 -1.72 0.086 -.152981 .0100278
poly#rcs():1 | .0606447 .2022149 0.30 0.764 -.3356891 .4569786
poly#rcs():2 | .0300334 .0622464 0.48 0.629 -.0919672 .1520341
poly#rcs():3 | .0099098 .0115255 0.86 0.390 -.0126799 .0324994
poly#rcs():4 | .0133117 .0076715 1.74 0.083 -.0017242 .0283477
_cons | -1.563247 .503837 -3.10 0.002 -2.550749 -.5757448
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
***********
Transition 3: family RP5
***********
note; a delayed entry model is being fitted
Obtaining initial values
variables created for model 1, component 3: _cmp_1_3_1 to _cmp_1_3_5
variables created: _rcs1_1 to _rcs1_5
Fitting full model:
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -11362.963
Iteration 1: log likelihood = -10991.781
Iteration 2: log likelihood = -10972.259
Iteration 3: log likelihood = -10950.579
Iteration 4: log likelihood = -10950.482
Iteration 5: log likelihood = -10948.841
Iteration 6: log likelihood = -10948.834
Iteration 7: log likelihood = -10948.679
Iteration 8: log likelihood = -10948.675
Iteration 9: log likelihood = -10948.669
Iteration 10: log likelihood = -10948.665
Iteration 11: log likelihood = -10948.658
Iteration 12: log likelihood = -10948.648
Iteration 13: log likelihood = -10948.638
Iteration 14: log likelihood = -10948.626
Iteration 15: log likelihood = -10948.625
Iteration 16: log likelihood = -10948.625
Survival model Number of obs = 16,474
Log likelihood = -10948.625
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t: |
poly | .4929318 .4559742 1.08 0.280 -.4007612 1.386625
_start | -.0707137 .0415788 -1.70 0.089 -.1522068 .0107793
poly#rcs():1 | .0609687 .1804953 0.34 0.736 -.2927957 .4147331
poly#rcs():2 | .033801 .0541193 0.62 0.532 -.0722708 .1398728
poly#rcs():3 | .0096904 .0113914 0.85 0.395 -.0126363 .0320171
poly#rcs():4 | .0184841 .0090126 2.05 0.040 .0008197 .0361485
poly#rcs():5 | .0108558 .006197 1.75 0.080 -.00129 .0230016
_cons | -1.560176 .4485228 -3.48 0.001 -2.439264 -.6810874
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warning: Baseline spline coefficients not shown - use ml display
. *rcs(time, df(3) orthog)
. estwrite _all using "${pathdata2}parmodels_m_illness_death_23_2.sters", replace
(saving m2_1_exp)
(saving m2_1_weib)
(saving m2_1_gom)
(saving m2_1_logl)
(saving m2_1_logn)
(saving m2_1_ggam)
(saving m2_1_rp1_tvc1)
(saving m2_1_rp1_tvc2)
(saving m2_1_rp1_tvc3)
(saving m2_1_rp1_tvc4)
(saving m2_1_rp1_tvc5)
(saving m2_1_rp2_tvc1)
(saving m2_1_rp2_tvc2)
(saving m2_1_rp2_tvc3)
(saving m2_1_rp2_tvc4)
(saving m2_1_rp2_tvc5)
(saving m2_1_rp3_tvc1)
(saving m2_1_rp3_tvc2)
(saving m2_1_rp3_tvc3)
(saving m2_1_rp3_tvc4)
(saving m2_1_rp3_tvc5)
(saving m2_1_rp4_tvc1)
(saving m2_1_rp4_tvc2)
(saving m2_1_rp4_tvc3)
(saving m2_1_rp4_tvc4)
(saving m2_1_rp4_tvc5)
(saving m2_1_rp5_tvc1)
(saving m2_1_rp5_tvc2)
(saving m2_1_rp5_tvc3)
(saving m2_1_rp5_tvc4)
(saving m2_1_rp5_tvc5)
(saving m2_2_exp)
(saving m2_2_weib)
(saving m2_2_gom)
(saving m2_2_logl)
(saving m2_2_logn)
(saving m2_2_ggam)
(saving m2_2_rp1_tvc1)
(saving m2_2_rp1_tvc2)
(saving m2_2_rp1_tvc3)
(saving m2_2_rp1_tvc4)
(saving m2_2_rp1_tvc5)
(saving m2_2_rp2_tvc1)
(saving m2_2_rp2_tvc2)
(saving m2_2_rp2_tvc3)
(saving m2_2_rp2_tvc4)
(saving m2_2_rp2_tvc5)
(saving m2_2_rp3_tvc1)
(saving m2_2_rp3_tvc2)
(saving m2_2_rp3_tvc3)
(saving m2_2_rp3_tvc4)
(saving m2_2_rp3_tvc5)
(saving m2_2_rp4_tvc1)
(saving m2_2_rp4_tvc2)
(saving m2_2_rp4_tvc3)
(saving m2_2_rp4_tvc4)
(saving m2_2_rp4_tvc5)
(saving m2_2_rp5_tvc1)
(saving m2_2_rp5_tvc2)
(saving m2_2_rp5_tvc3)
(saving m2_2_rp5_tvc4)
(saving m2_2_rp5_tvc5)
(saving m2_3_exp)
(saving m2_3_weib)
(saving m2_3_gom)
(saving m2_3_logl)
(saving m2_3_logn)
(saving m2_3_ggam)
(saving m2_3_rp1_tvc1)
(saving m2_3_rp1_tvc2)
(saving m2_3_rp1_tvc3)
(saving m2_3_rp1_tvc4)
(saving m2_3_rp1_tvc5)
(saving m2_3_rp2_tvc1)
(saving m2_3_rp2_tvc2)
(saving m2_3_rp2_tvc3)
(saving m2_3_rp2_tvc4)
(saving m2_3_rp2_tvc5)
(saving m2_3_rp3_tvc1)
(saving m2_3_rp3_tvc2)
(saving m2_3_rp3_tvc3)
(saving m2_3_rp3_tvc4)
(saving m2_3_rp3_tvc5)
(saving m2_3_rp4_tvc1)
(saving m2_3_rp4_tvc2)
(saving m2_3_rp4_tvc3)
(saving m2_3_rp4_tvc4)
(saving m2_3_rp4_tvc5)
(saving m2_3_rp5_tvc1)
(saving m2_3_rp5_tvc2)
(saving m2_3_rp5_tvc3)
(saving m2_3_rp5_tvc4)
(saving m2_3_rp5_tvc5)
(file parmodels_m_illness_death_23_2.sters saved)
Selected the models with lower fit indices.
| comb | ||||||
| N | ll0 | ll | df | AIC | BIC | |
| m2_1_rp5_tvc5 | 16475 | . | -43241.53 | 12 | 86507.07 | 86599.58 |
| m2_1_rp5_tvc2 | 16475 | . | -43257.77 | 9 | 86533.54 | 86602.92 |
| m2_1_rp5_tvc3 | 16475 | . | -43257.65 | 10 | 86535.31 | 86612.4 |
| m2_1_rp5_tvc4 | 16475 | . | -43257.69 | 11 | 86537.38 | 86622.18 |
| m2_1_rp5_tvc1 | 16475 | . | -43263.72 | 8 | 86543.44 | 86605.11 |
| m2_1_rp4_tvc5 | 16475 | . | -43283.91 | 11 | 86589.82 | 86674.63 |
| m2_1_rp4_tvc4 | 16475 | . | -43301.29 | 10 | 86622.59 | 86699.69 |
| m2_1_rp4_tvc2 | 16475 | . | -43304.61 | 8 | 86625.22 | 86686.89 |
| m2_1_rp4_tvc3 | 16475 | . | -43304.08 | 9 | 86626.16 | 86695.55 |
| m2_1_rp4_tvc1 | 16475 | . | -43311.12 | 7 | 86636.24 | 86690.2 |
| m2_1_rp3_tvc5 | 16475 | . | -43339.96 | 10 | 86699.93 | 86777.02 |
| m2_1_rp3_tvc4 | 16475 | . | -43380.66 | 9 | 86779.32 | 86848.71 |
| m2_1_rp2_tvc5 | 16475 | . | -43404.53 | 9 | 86827.07 | 86896.45 |
| m2_1_rp2_tvc4 | 16475 | . | -43445.94 | 8 | 86907.89 | 86969.56 |
| m2_1_rp3_tvc3 | 16475 | . | -43711.81 | 8 | 87439.61 | 87501.29 |
| m2_1_rp3_tvc2 | 16475 | . | -43728.91 | 7 | 87471.81 | 87525.78 |
| m2_1_rp3_tvc1 | 16475 | . | -43742.23 | 6 | 87496.46 | 87542.71 |
| m2_1_rp2_tvc3 | 16475 | . | -43757.58 | 7 | 87529.16 | 87583.13 |
| m2_1_rp2_tvc2 | 16475 | . | -44186.49 | 6 | 88384.98 | 88431.24 |
| m2_1_rp2_tvc1 | 16475 | . | -44201.16 | 5 | 88412.32 | 88450.87 |
| m2_1_rp1_tvc5 | 16475 | . | -46324.31 | 8 | 92664.63 | 92726.31 |
| m2_1_rp1_tvc4 | 16475 | . | -46366.59 | 7 | 92747.19 | 92801.15 |
| m2_1_rp1_tvc3 | 16475 | . | -46694.16 | 6 | 93400.32 | 93446.58 |
| m2_1_rp1_tvc2 | 16475 | . | -47107.14 | 5 | 94224.28 | 94262.82 |
| m2_1_gom | 16475 | . | -48582.29 | 3 | 97170.58 | 97193.7 |
| m2_1_ggam | 16475 | . | -49785.96 | 4 | 99579.91 | 99610.75 |
| m2_1_logn | 16475 | . | -50998.29 | 3 | 102002.6 | 102025.7 |
| m2_1_logl | 16475 | . | -52094.77 | 3 | 104195.5 | 104218.7 |
| m2_1_rp1_tvc1 | 16475 | . | -52980.63 | 4 | 105969.3 | 106000.1 |
| m2_1_weib | 16475 | . | -53002.76 | 3 | 106011.5 | 106034.6 |
| m2_1_exp | 16475 | . | -54227.57 | 2 | 108459.1 | 108474.6 |
| m2_2_rp3_tvc4 | 14331 | . | -48059.56 | 9 | 96137.13 | 96205.26 |
| m2_2_rp4_tvc3 | 14331 | . | -48059.71 | 9 | 96137.43 | 96205.56 |
| m2_2_rp4_tvc4 | 14331 | . | -48058.95 | 10 | 96137.9 | 96213.6 |
| m2_2_rp5_tvc3 | 14331 | . | -48059.08 | 10 | 96138.15 | 96213.86 |
| m2_2_rp3_tvc5 | 14331 | . | -48059.18 | 10 | 96138.36 | 96214.06 |
| m2_2_rp4_tvc5 | 14331 | . | -48058.28 | 11 | 96138.55 | 96221.83 |
| m2_2_rp5_tvc5 | 14331 | . | -48057.41 | 12 | 96138.81 | 96229.65 |
| m2_2_rp4_tvc1 | 14331 | . | -48062.65 | 7 | 96139.3 | 96192.29 |
| m2_2_rp5_tvc4 | 14331 | . | -48058.76 | 11 | 96139.53 | 96222.8 |
| m2_2_rp5_tvc1 | 14331 | . | -48062.13 | 8 | 96140.26 | 96200.82 |
| m2_2_rp4_tvc2 | 14331 | . | -48062.21 | 8 | 96140.41 | 96200.97 |
| m2_2_rp2_tvc4 | 14331 | . | -48062.64 | 8 | 96141.28 | 96201.84 |
| m2_2_rp5_tvc2 | 14331 | . | -48061.66 | 9 | 96141.33 | 96209.46 |
| m2_2_rp2_tvc5 | 14331 | . | -48062.18 | 9 | 96142.35 | 96210.49 |
| m2_2_rp3_tvc3 | 14331 | . | -48063.5 | 8 | 96143 | 96203.56 |
| m2_2_rp3_tvc1 | 14331 | . | -48066.67 | 6 | 96145.34 | 96190.76 |
| m2_2_rp3_tvc2 | 14331 | . | -48066.22 | 7 | 96146.43 | 96199.42 |
| m2_2_rp2_tvc1 | 14331 | . | -48069.01 | 5 | 96148.02 | 96185.87 |
| m2_2_rp2_tvc2 | 14331 | . | -48068.69 | 6 | 96149.38 | 96194.8 |
| m2_2_rp2_tvc3 | 14331 | . | -48068.54 | 7 | 96151.07 | 96204.06 |
| m2_2_ggam | 14331 | . | -48137.74 | 4 | 96283.48 | 96313.76 |
| m2_2_rp1_tvc4 | 14331 | . | -48207.67 | 7 | 96429.34 | 96482.33 |
| m2_2_rp1_tvc5 | 14331 | . | -48207.12 | 8 | 96430.24 | 96490.81 |
| m2_2_rp1_tvc3 | 14331 | . | -48211.34 | 6 | 96434.68 | 96480.1 |
| m2_2_rp1_tvc2 | 14331 | . | -48213.72 | 5 | 96437.44 | 96475.29 |
| m2_2_logn | 14331 | . | -48307.03 | 3 | 96620.05 | 96642.76 |
| m2_2_logl | 14331 | . | -48794.08 | 3 | 97594.16 | 97616.88 |
| m2_2_gom | 14331 | . | -49018.23 | 3 | 98042.45 | 98065.16 |
| m2_2_rp1_tvc1 | 14331 | . | -49204.92 | 4 | 98417.84 | 98448.12 |
| m2_2_weib | 14331 | . | -49224.92 | 3 | 98455.83 | 98478.54 |
| m2_2_exp | 14331 | . | -49228.58 | 2 | 98461.16 | 98476.3 |
| m2_3_logl | 2936 | . | -10955.13 | 4 | 21918.26 | 21942.2 |
| m2_3_rp1_tvc3 | 2936 | . | -10952.3 | 7 | 21918.6 | 21960.49 |
| m2_3_logn | 2936 | . | -10955.33 | 4 | 21918.65 | 21942.59 |
| m2_3_ggam | 2936 | . | -10955.33 | 4 | 21918.65 | 21942.59 |
| m2_3_rp1_tvc4 | 2936 | . | -10951.47 | 8 | 21918.94 | 21966.82 |
| m2_3_rp1_tvc2 | 2936 | . | -10953.5 | 6 | 21919 | 21954.91 |
| m2_3_rp1_tvc5 | 2936 | . | -10950.52 | 9 | 21919.04 | 21972.91 |
| m2_3_rp2_tvc1 | 2936 | . | -10953.55 | 6 | 21919.1 | 21955.01 |
| m2_3_rp3_tvc1 | 2936 | . | -10952.95 | 7 | 21919.9 | 21961.8 |
| m2_3_rp2_tvc3 | 2936 | . | -10952.04 | 8 | 21920.07 | 21967.95 |
| m2_3_rp4_tvc5 | 2936 | . | -10948.08 | 12 | 21920.15 | 21991.97 |
| m2_3_rp2_tvc4 | 2936 | . | -10951.16 | 9 | 21920.33 | 21974.19 |
| m2_3_rp2_tvc2 | 2936 | . | -10953.2 | 7 | 21920.4 | 21962.29 |
| m2_3_rp2_tvc5 | 2936 | . | -10950.21 | 10 | 21920.42 | 21980.27 |
| m2_3_rp4_tvc1 | 2936 | . | -10952.7 | 8 | 21921.39 | 21969.27 |
| m2_3_rp3_tvc2 | 2936 | . | -10952.7 | 8 | 21921.41 | 21969.29 |
| m2_3_rp4_tvc4 | 2936 | . | -10949.74 | 11 | 21921.48 | 21987.31 |
| m2_3_rp5_tvc1 | 2936 | . | -10951.91 | 9 | 21921.82 | 21975.68 |
| m2_3_rp4_tvc3 | 2936 | . | -10951.48 | 10 | 21922.97 | 21982.81 |
| m2_3_rp4_tvc2 | 2936 | . | -10952.49 | 9 | 21922.98 | 21976.84 |
| m2_3_rp5_tvc5 | 2936 | . | -10948.62 | 13 | 21923.25 | 22001.05 |
| m2_3_rp3_tvc3 | 2936 | . | -10952.67 | 9 | 21923.34 | 21977.21 |
| m2_3_rp5_tvc2 | 2936 | . | -10951.72 | 10 | 21923.44 | 21983.29 |
| m2_3_rp3_tvc4 | 2936 | . | -10951.82 | 10 | 21923.65 | 21983.5 |
| m2_3_rp3_tvc5 | 2936 | . | -10950.88 | 11 | 21923.76 | 21989.59 |
| m2_3_gom | 2936 | . | -10957.96 | 4 | 21923.91 | 21947.85 |
| m2_3_rp5_tvc3 | 2936 | . | -10950.99 | 11 | 21923.98 | 21989.81 |
| m2_3_rp5_tvc4 | 2936 | . | -10950.08 | 12 | 21924.16 | 21995.98 |
| m2_3_weib | 2936 | . | -10958.77 | 4 | 21925.53 | 21949.47 |
| m2_3_rp1_tvc1 | 2936 | . | -10958.74 | 5 | 21927.48 | 21957.4 |
| m2_3_exp | 2936 | . | -11125.29 | 3 | 22256.57 | 22274.52 |
. *https://twitter.com/RDAnalyticsAB/status/1480550270773911556/photo/1
.
. //2023-01-08, m2_2_rp4_tvc1 was the model with best BIC considering the lower differences between the models with best AIC
. //2023-01-08, we chose gompertz in the third because the rp3_tvc1 had worst BIC
. qui estread "${pathdata2}parmodels_m_illness_death_23_2.sters"
.
. local labs `" "Est" "Cons" "Par1" "Par2" "Par3" "Time in days""'
. esttab m2_1_rp5_tvc5 m2_2_rp4_tvc1 m2_3_gom using tab1_ser_23.html, /// transform(1 exp(@) @ @ @) ///
> label cells ("b(fmt(2) label(Coef)) ci(fmt(2)par label(CI95%))") compress nogap /// /* _sign */
> stats(family1 ll N, fmt(2 %9.0g %9.0g 3 2 %9.0g) labels(Dist Log-likelihood "Cases")) style(html) ///
> title(Selected models: Parametric) ///
> mtitles("1st tr" "2nd tr" "3rd tr" "4th tr" "5th tr" "6th tr" "7th tr" "8th tr") ///
> hlinechar(`=char(151)') ///
> varlabels(none) ///
> eqlabels(`labs', lhs("Parameters")) /// //* eqlabels(none, lhs("Parameters")) ///
> addnotes("Note.") sfmt(%15,3g) plain wide replace
(output written to tab1_ser_23.html)
The selected models and their parameters can be summarised here:
| 1st tr | 2nd tr | 3rd tr | ||||
| Coef | CI95% | Coef | CI95% | Coef | CI95% | |
| Est | ||||||
| -0.40 | [-0.44,-0.37] | 0.69 | [0.63,0.74] | 0.66 | [0.57,0.75] | |
| Cons | ||||||
| -0.03 | [-0.05,-0.00] | -0.10 | [-0.14,-0.06] | -0.11 | [-0.19,-0.03] | |
| Par1 | ||||||
| -0.04 | [-0.08,-0.01] | |||||
| Par2 | ||||||
| 0.01 | [-0.01,0.03] | |||||
| Par3 | ||||||
| 0.01 | [-0.00,0.02] | |||||
| Time in days | ||||||
| -0.02 | [-0.02,-0.01] | |||||
| cons1 | ||||||
| -1.26 | [-1.29,-1.23] | -2.43 | [-2.48,-2.38] | -2.62 | [-2.73,-2.51] | |
| _rcs1 | ||||||
| 0.83 | [0.81,0.85] | 1.23 | [1.19,1.27] | |||
| 0.39 | [0.36,0.42] | 0.32 | [0.30,0.34] | |||
| 0.32 | [0.30,0.34] | 0.01 | [-0.00,0.03] | |||
| -0.04 | [-0.05,-0.03] | 0.01 | [0.00,0.02] | |||
| -0.00 | [-0.01,0.00] | |||||
| dap1_1 | ||||||
| -0.20 | [-0.22,-0.18] | |||||
| Dist | rp | rp | gompertz | |||
| Log-likelihood | -43241.53 | -48062.65 | -10957.96 | |||
| Cases | 59763 | 59763 | 16474 | |||
| Note. | ||||||
=============================================================================
=============================================================================
.
. qui estread "${pathdata2}parmodels_m_illness_death_23_2.sters"
.
. matrix tmat = (.,1,2 \ .,.,3 \ .,.,.)
. matrix colnames tmat = start TC Contact_JS
. matrix rownames tmat = start TC Contact_JS
. matrix coleq tmat = to to to
. matrix roweq tmat = from from from
.
. predictms, transmatrix(tmat) models(m2_1_rp5_tvc5 m2_2_rp4_tvc1 m2_3_gom) ///
> timevar(timevar0) /// mint(0) maxt(1826) timevar() cannot be specified with mint()/maxt()/obs()
> seed(2125) n($sim) prob los diff ratio latent /// * si agrego bootstrap, at#() limit reached, or unrecognised option
> from(1) ci at1(poly 0 _start .2) at2(poly 1 _start .2) reset bootstrap m($boots) //* es una forma de hacer bootstrap
Calculating CIs via parametric bootstrap for at1() (1000)
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Calculating CIs via parametric bootstrap for at2() (1000)
----+--- 1 ---+--- 2 ---+--- 3 ---+--- 4 ---+--- 5
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.
. rename (_prob_at1_1_*lci) (fprob_from1a_*lci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at1_1_*uci) (fprob_from1a_*uci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at1_1_*) (fprob_from1a_*_2m)
.
. rename (_los_at1_1_*lci) (flos_from1a_*lci_2m)
. rename (_los_at1_1_*uci) (flos_from1a_*uci_2m)
. rename (_los_at1_1_*) (flos_from1a_*_2m)
.
. rename (_prob_at2_1_*lci) (fprob_from1b_*lci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at2_1_*uci) (fprob_from1b_*uci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at2_1_*) (fprob_from1b_*_2m)
.
. rename (_los_at2_1_*lci) (flos_from1b_*lci_2m)
. rename (_los_at2_1_*uci) (flos_from1b_*uci_2m)
. rename (_los_at2_1_*) (flos_from1b_*_2m)
.
. rename (_ratio_prob_at2_1_*_lci) (fratio_prob_from1_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_prob_at2_1_*_uci) (fratio_prob_from1_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_prob_at2_1_*) (fratio_prob_from1_*_2m)
. rename (_diff_prob_at2_1_*_lci) (fdiff_prob_from1_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_diff_prob_at2_1_*_uci) (fdiff_prob_from1_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_diff_prob_at2_1_*) (fdiff_prob_from1_*_2m)
.
. rename (_ratio_los_at2_1_*_lci) (fratio_los_from1_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_los_at2_1_*_uci) (fratio_los_from1_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_los_at2_1_*) (fratio_los_from1_*_2m)
. rename (_diff_los_at2_1_*_lci) (fdiff_los_from1_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_diff_los_at2_1_*_uci) (fdiff_los_from1_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_diff_los_at2_1_*) (fdiff_los_from1_*_2m)
.
. qui estread "${pathdata2}parmodels_m_illness_death_23_2.sters"
.
. predictms, transmatrix(tmat) models(m2_1_rp5_tvc5 m2_2_rp4_tvc1 m2_3_gom) ///
> timevar(timevar0) /// mint(0) maxt(1826) timevar() cannot be specified with mint()/maxt()/obs()
> seed(2125) n($sim) prob los diff ratio /// * si agrego bootstrap, at#() limit reached, or unrecognised option
> from(2) ci at1(poly 0 _start .2) at2(poly 1 _start .2) reset bootstrap m($boots) //* es una forma de hacer bootstrap
Calculating CIs via parametric bootstrap for at1() (1000)
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Calculating CIs via parametric bootstrap for at2() (1000)
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. rename (_prob_at1_2_*lci) (fprob_from2a_*lci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at1_2_*uci) (fprob_from2a_*uci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at1_2_*) (fprob_from2a_*_2m)
.
. rename (_los_at1_2_*lci) (flos_from2a_*lci_2m)
. rename (_los_at1_2_*uci) (flos_from2a_*uci_2m)
. rename (_los_at1_2_*) (flos_from2a_*_2m)
.
. rename (_prob_at2_2_*lci) (fprob_from2b_*lci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at2_2_*uci) (fprob_from2b_*uci_2m)
. rename (_prob_at2_2_*) (fprob_from2b_*_2m)
.
. rename (_los_at2_2_*lci) (flos_from2b_*lci_2m)
. rename (_los_at2_2_*uci) (flos_from2b_*uci_2m)
. rename (_los_at2_2_*) (flos_from2b_*_2m)
.
. rename (_ratio_prob_at2_2_*_lci) (fratio_prob_from2_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_prob_at2_2_*_uci) (fratio_prob_from2_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_prob_at2_2_*) (fratio_prob_from2_*_2m)
. rename (_diff_prob_at2_2_*_lci) (fdiff_prob_from2_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_diff_prob_at2_2_*_uci) (fdiff_prob_from2_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_diff_prob_at2_2_*) (fdiff_prob_from2_*_2m)
.
. rename (_ratio_los_at2_2_*_lci) (fratio_los_from2_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_los_at2_2_*_uci) (fratio_los_from2_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_ratio_los_at2_2_*) (fratio_los_from2_*_2m)
. rename (_diff_los_at2_2_*_lci) (fdiff_los_from2_*_lci_2m)
. rename (_diff_los_at2_2_*_uci) (fdiff_los_from2_*_uci_2m)
. rename (_diff_los_at2_2_*) (fdiff_los_from2_*_2m)
.
Saved at= 22:54:46 19 Apr 2023